Global laptops are predicted to recover after a stagnant period in 2025, with 4.9% growth, reaching 183 million units. While all the attention seems to have been focused on AI PCs, the drivers of growth may surprise.
The Windows 10 End-of-Life: A Major Catalyst for PC Upgrades
New research from TrendForce suggests that the end-of-life deadline for Windows 10, combined with commercial upgrade cycles, will be key in driving growth in the market.
This market will be rejuvenated to a large extent by the Windows 10 reaching its end-of-life in October 2025.
With the adoption of Windows 11 picking pace, Windows 10 stays on 61 percent of all PCs- this is close to double the share that Windows 11 has attained around 36 percent. So, this large user population would have no choice but to upgrade; and a huge market opens up for laptops.
This will make consumers and businesses alike take the step forward to newer systems, be it an individual upgrading their personal laptop or the entire workstation fleet of a business. This will catalyze new demand in laptops, more especially those with Windows 11 preinstalled, which happens to be AI-enabled.
Commercial Upgrade Cycles: Corporate Demand Fuels Growth
While consumer demand in 2024 has been somewhat tempered by high interest rates and geopolitical instability, the corporate sector remains a strong contender for driving laptop sales.
According to TechRadar, businesses that previously delayed their system upgrades are now ready to take action. Once political uncertainty decreases and the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, companies will free up funds for technology investments.
This corporate demand will be extremely influential because of its appeal to the competitiveness of a business and ensuring systems can meet the latest updates for its software and security patches.
Businesses will thus make their laptop demands skyrocket in this aspect to upgrade before hitting the EOL deadline of Windows 10.
AI-integrated Laptops: Not Yet
Despite the hype surrounding AI-driven laptops, these devices are hardly a driving force in the world of laptops. Currently, they are sold at a 10-15% premium in comparison to their non-AI counterparts, and as such, the benefits AI brings to these devices are still in the early stages of evolution.
Many businesses and consumers face challenges in identifying clear-cut use cases for these next-generation machines, which limits appeal.
Intel recently found out that, despite people having purchased AI-enabled PCs, they don't entirely take advantage of the technology due to an initial learning curve. AI laptops have yet to reach a place in the mainstream unless more specific, real-life applications arise, proving more worthwhile investments.
Market Outlook into 2025: Great Year for Laptops
In summary, though the growth of AI laptops has been a talked-about phenomenon, it is more likely that Windows 10 EOL and corporate upgrade cycles will be the real driving forces behind market growth in 2025.
The drive to Windows 11 will prompt both individual and business consumers to upgrade their devices as the reduction of geopolitical and financial uncertainties frees up more funds for these purchases.
As 2024 winds down, the laptop market is expected to receive a much-needed boost, and the projected growth of 4.9% in 2025 looks promising for the industry. But the real test for companies will be to get consumers to accept the advantages of newer technologies, such as AI laptops, as the market evolves.
