In the southeast section of Alaska and near Canada's British Columbia is a large ice field that covers 1,500 square miles, making it one of the five biggest ice fields in the Western Hemisphere. From it are more than 140 glaciers, including two of the most popular spots: Taku and Mendenhall, which was visited by at least 400,000 people each year.
This ice field, therefore, is a source of pride and economy in the state, but it is about to disappear within the next century.
A new study by researchers from the University of Alaska Fairbanks reveals that if global warming continues to increase until 2060, a huge part of the ice field will be gone by 2099 - this even if better energy sources are adopted and fossil fuels are replaced starting 2061.
"Using the WRF data forced with the RCP 6.0 emission scenario, the model projects a decrease in ice volume by 58-68 percent and a 57-63 percent area loss by 2099 compared with 2010. If the modeled 2070-99 climate is held constant beyond 2099, the ice field is eliminated by 2200," the study says.
In other words, the mountain will still be around, but there will be no more glaciers.
Coming up with these results has been difficult for the researchers, since for statistical models to work, they need data from weather stations, which are non-existent in the area. Hence, they had to use information related to the climate system of the mountain and the ice field such as the amount of sunlight and precipitation, as well as the topography of the area.
"The topography in the Juneau area is very steep. Just having one data point every 20 kilometers (12 miles) doesn't really resolve the mountain flanks and how the precipitation falls," said Florian Ziemen, the study's lead author who was in the university for post-doctoral work during the time of the research.
They also used a glacier model the university has developed for the Greenland Ice Sheet and integrated the results with adjusted climate data obtained from a forecasting model.
If there is any consolation, it is not worse than what is happening in Greenland. Because the ice field is found at a very high altitude, it will continue to receive snow during winter, which becomes snowmelt in spring.
The study is now available in the Journal of Glaciology.
Photo: USDA Forest Service Alaska | Flickr
