Arctic warming could mean fewer instances of extreme cold, according to a new study out of England.
Arctic amplification measures the rate at which areas in the far north warms compared to other regions of the globe.
The last few winters have been marked by far lower than normal temperatures throughout Europe and North America. The frigid weather disrupted major transportation systems, caused frequent blackouts and destroyed vast fields of crops.
Many climatologists believed Arctic amplification may have been the ultimate cause of the frigid conditions. Melting ice and rising temperatures were believed to be altering the Arctic jet stream, making day-to-day temperatures more variable.
James Screen of the University of Exeter has conducted a new study, showing the opposite may be true. This Arctic amplification may have reduced the frequency of such extreme temperatures, based on the investigation.
"Autumn and winter days are becoming warmer on average, and less variable from day-to-day. Both factors reduce the chance of extremely cold days," Screen, a mathematics professor at the University, said.
He carried out a detailed mathematical investigation of temperature records for areas in the northern hemisphere. This revealed a pattern inconsistent with earlier theories of Arctic amplification.
"Autumn and winter days are becoming warmer on average, and less variable from day-to-day. Both factors reduce the chance of extremely cold days," Screen said.
The analysis revealed temperature variability throughout mid- and upper-level latitudes decreased over the last several years. Screen and his team assert cold winters in the last few years have been caused by northerly winds, fed by quickly-warming northern regions.
Autumn, winter and spring temperatures are predicted, by the study, to become less variable as time goes on.
On Jan. 7, 2014, temperatures around the United States dropped below freezing in all 50 states. Even Hawaii was below the freezing point, due to volcanic activity. In Chicago, polar bears were brought into a shelter for protection from the cold.
Arctic amplification quickly became a popular idea among many members of the public, who believed the phenomenon could lead to more frequent cold snaps. If Screen's research is correct, countries of the northern hemisphere are likely to see fewer snaps of extreme cold during the next century.
"I don't think we necessarily need explanations for the past winter other than that's just weather," Screen told the press.
The study was funded in part by the UK Natural Environment Research Council.
Investigation of Arctic amplification and its role in extreme cold snaps around the northern hemisphere was detailed in the journal Nature Climate Change.
