Contrary to previous assumptions about the jet stream, arctic weather and extreme cold weather events throughout the globe; a new study shows that warming arctic temperatures may bring about a marked decrease in extreme cold weather. The study hints that these types of weather events may soon be less common in Europe, North American and the northern sections of Asia.
The study was conducted by University of Exeter climate scientist James Screen. In previous years, climate researchers have been studying the effects of arctic climates on the rest of the planet. These new studies have led to various advances in climate science and researchers are gaining a deeper understanding on how changes in the poles can affect weather systems in other parts of the planet. Screen published his findings in the online journal Nature Climate Change. The study was also funded by the United Kingdom Natural Environment Research Council.
According to Screen, warming temperatures in the arctic can also affect the winds blowing from north to south. Since the arctic is warmer, the cool air blowing from the arctic can also get milder and warm up faster when compared to previous years. This in turn affects temperatures throughout the world and could lead to lesser extreme cold weather events in various parts of the world.
"Cold days tend to occur when the wind is blowing from the north, bringing Arctic air south into the mid-latitudes," said Screen. "Because the Arctic air is warming so rapidly these cold days are now less cold than they were in the past."
In previous years, some climate experts have said that certain areas of North America and Europe may soon experience more frequent bouts of extremely cold weather. However, Screen's study shows that this may not be true.
"Autumn and winter days are becoming warmer on average, and less variable from day-to-day," added Screen. "Both factors reduce the chance of extremely cold days."
To reach his conclusions, Screen used cutting edge mathematical models of climate to simulate the weather system in the Arctic and its effects on other parts of the world. Screen, who is a mathematics research fellow at Exeter, was able to show that the warming trend in the arctic regions may continue in the following years. His mathematical models also indicated a possible decrease in the variances of temperatures throughout the years, the only exception being summer, where temperatures may continue to soar in some parts of the world.
