This year's hurricane season may be quieter than in previous years, with less storms expected to make landfall in the United States.
Less storms may arrive, but intensities could still be high.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center issued the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook on Aug. 6, and said chances of a below-normal hurricane season are at 90 percent. The prediction increased from a previous prediction in May, where chances of a below-normal hurricane season were at 70 percent.
So far, two tropical storms have made landfall in the U.S. this year - Bill struck Texas in June, while Ana hit South Carolina in May. The peak month of the hurricane season has just started.
"Tropical storms and hurricanes can and do strike the United States, even in below-normal seasons and during El Niño events," said the lead NOAA's Climate Prediction Center's lead seasonal hurricane forecaster Gerry Bell, Ph.D. He added that despite their prediction that hurricane season will be below normal, people, especially those residing along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts must still remain vigilant and prepared.
Overall, expected storm activity is also lowered, according to the outlook. From six to 11 expected named storms predicted in May, the outlook now predicts a 70 percent chance of six to 10. The May Outlook also predicted three to six hurricanes arising from the storms, which is now down to only one to four. Also in May, scientists forecasted a maximum of two major hurricanes to hit the U.S., but the updated outlook now predicts only one hurricane, if not none at all. On the average, the NOAA predicts 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
Factors that contributed to a below-average hurricane season, according to NOAA, include El Niño strengthening and continuing throughout the hurricane season, atmospheric conditions like strong vertical wind shear and enhanced sinking motions across the Caribbean and Atlantic, and cooler temperatures on the surface of the tropical Atlantic.
A few hurricanes may be missing in this year's hurricane season. Experts, however, stress the importance of being prepared in the even that a major storm or hurricane strikes.
The Atlantic hurricane season starts every first of June to the end of November. The 90 percent probability of a quieter hurricane season this year is the highest confidence level yet given by the NOAA since outlooks of seasonal hurricanes began in 1998.
