The world population will be ballooning from 7.3 billion today to 9.7 billion by 2050 and 11.2 billion by the end of the century, according to a report presented at the 2015 Joint Statistical Meetings.
United Nations Population Division Director John R. Wilmoth's presentation highlighted the demographic forecast and suggested that the world's population will not be seeing a slowdown in growth within the century until fertility rates decline, most especially in portions of sub-Saharan Africa. According to UN estimates, chances that the population of the world will cease to grow within the century is at 23 percent.
The report used models to plot out demographic changes based on historical data. These models showed that the world population will be numbering anywhere from 9.5 to 13.3 billion by 2100. In the U.S., projections are pointing to a population growing by an average of 1.5 million each year until the century ends, meaning a jump from 322 million to 450 million by 2100.
The driving factor that will influence the growth of the world's population is the projected rise in the African population. The continent currently has 1.2 billion people. This number is expected to rise to 3.4 billion to 5.6 billion by 2100. Africa's population persistently grows because of high fertility rates. The total fertility rate for Africa has been declining over the past 10 years, but it's only dropping at the rate just a quarter of what Asia, the Carribean and Latin America experienced in the 1970s.
In some African countries, even a decline in total fertility rates is almost non-existent. Nigeria, the most populous country in the continent, for instance, has a fertility rate so high that its population will grow more than fourfold by 2100, going from 182 million to 752 million. Projections don't always come true, but there is a 90 percent chance that Nigeria's population will jump to more than 439 million by the end of the century, which is almost 2.5 times the country's current population.
The results presented in Wilmoth's report have major implications for governments around the world as they will affect policies. A fast-growing population in a high-fertility country, for instance, can worsen existing problems involving the environment, public health, the economy and education.
Photo: Scott Cresswell | Flickr
