Southern California's future is bright and fiery, according to studies conducted by scientists in the past several years.
Wildfires will scorch California's forests more often than normal and the fires will be bigger and more ferocious, spreading quickly, occurring earlier and lasting longer by the year, scientists predict, based on drought and higher temperatures.
Forest fires, or wildfires, are often regarded as "quasi-natural" hazards or disasters that are not caused by natural features, unlike volcanic eruptions, earthquakes and cyclones. Human activity largely contributes to the ignition of the wildfires, which are spurred further either by lightning, volcanic eruption, sparks from rockfalls, spontaneous combustion or a combination of the four factors.
As per Associated Press, at least three studies claimed that man-made climate change is to blame for this shift in the natural phenomenon, but scientists have yet to declare global warming as the main culprit because they are still not sure whether most of the forest fires are indeed caused by an increase in temperatures. They have emphasized, though, that they gave fair warnings that global warming could serve as fuel to the fires.
However, it seems that the wildfires devouring much of California's vegetation are mainly caused by three natural phenomena: drought, heat and the Santa Ana winds. The National Weather Service records show that the first four months of this year are the hottest first four months on record for California and Arizona, with Southern California even hitting a record high of 100 degrees on May 15.
"The fires in California and here in Arizona are a clear example of what happens as the Earth warms, particularly as the West warms, and the warming caused by humans is making fire season longer and longer with each decade," said Jonathan Overpeck, a geoscientist at the University of Arizona. "It's certainly an example of what we'll see more of in the future."
Overpeck's observation is supported by a study conducted by the team of Philip Dennison at the University of Utah, which revealed large wildfires that engulf more than 1,000 acres in the West have grown to smolder 87,700 acres annually since 1984. Moreover, the study, which was recently published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, noted that the areas were wildfires were most recurrent are the areas experiencing intense droughts.
"That certainly points to climate being a major contributor," Dennison said. "We are going to see increased fire activity all across the West as the climate warms."
The National Climate Assessment, a talked-about report this year, revealed that the top fire wildfire cases happened within a decade. Approximately 6.4 million acres on average has been reduced to ashes every year from 2010 to 2013. This is a significant spike in number of acres damaged from the 2.9 million acres recorded in the 1980s. The report noted it found significant, increasing trends over the western U.S. and in a majority of ecoregions in the number of large fires and/or total large fire area per year.
