Too much of something is indeed bad. Such is in the case of weather patterns in central India, where researchers found out that there has been a significant change in the wet and dry seasons of the region, a huge jump from the patterns recorded in the last 60 years.
A study by a group of researchers in Stanford University found out that the likely cause for the fluctuations in the spells are the changes in the winds and moisture level of the atmosphere, but it is still too soon to blame climate change for it.
"There are many predictions that global warming should cause heavier downpours and more frequent dry spells," said Noah Diffenbaugh, senior author of the study. "That's what we've found here, but India is a complex region, so we want to be sure before we point the finger at global warming or any other cause."
The study centered on one of the most important weather systems in the world that brings the Indian subcontinent 85 percent of its rainfall every year - the South Asia monsoon. India is one of the most populous countries on Earth and it is highly dependent on its agriculture sector. Hence, India is also heavily reliant on the monsoon. But what happens if they receive too much of the extremes?
In the months when crops are usually grown, drought can result to a worst case scenario of crop failure. On the other hand, short but intense heavy rain falls may result in another Maharashtra and Gujarat floods of 2005, leaving thousands of bodies in their wake.
In the study, if there has been three or more successive days that have rained heavily or lowly, they are to be considered as wet and dry spells in that order.
With data from the Indian Meteorological Department and other sources, the team evaluated rain falls between two specific periods: from 1951 to 1980 and from 1981 to 2011, then chose the peak months of July and August.
While the technique used in gathering and analyzing data was deemed "off-the-shelf" and "classical" as it employs observations on spatial and temporal relationships, the findings supported accounts from Indian farmers who have personally felt the changes over the years.
"My grandfather grew up in a village that is primarily dependent on agriculture, and the farmers that live there say that the monsoon rainfall pattern has changed," lead author of the study Deepti Singh, whose family resides in a region usually hit by the monsoon, shared. "They've noticed over the last decade that rainfall occurs in heavy bursts and comes earlier in the monsoon season, and that the dry spells last longer."
Further studies on the possible causes of the changes in the atmosphere should be conducted, said Diffenbaugh, who is also an associate professor of environmental Earth system science and a senior fellow at the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment. The study was published in the latest issue of the journal Nature Climate Change.
