A new forecast report by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) suggests that California may experience a possible earthquake of magnitude 8, or stronger, on the Richter scale in the next 30 years.
An earthquake of this magnitude can have devastating effects. Usually, such an earthquake is felt over large regions. It can cause major damage to buildings and structures that are not earthquake-resistant and moderate damage to buildings that are earthquake-resistant.
California has experienced an earthquake in April 1906. The earthquake affected San Francisco, resulting in the death of about 3,000 people and leaving the city shattered. Since then, no serious earthquake has occurred in California.
On Tuesday, March 10, however, the USGS released a report that predicts a serious earthquake in California in the next 30 years. The report suggests that the USGS and its partners have revised their scientific estimates for major earthquakes in the coming decades.
The Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, or UCERF3, expands upon previous earthquake models and includes California's composite active geological faults system. The USGS suggests that the chances of California experiencing a magnitude 8 or above earthquake in the next 30 years have increased from 4.7 percent to 7 percent.
"The new likelihoods are due to the inclusion of possible multi-fault ruptures, where earthquakes are no longer confined to separate, individual faults, but can occasionally rupture multiple faults simultaneously," said Ned Field, a scientist at the USGS, who is also the lead author of the latest study. "This is a significant advancement in terms of representing a broader range of earthquakes throughout California's complex fault system."
The study also highlights how future earthquakes would impact and be distributed across California.
Experts believe that people in California have been fortunate that a major earthquake has not occurred in the past 100 years. However, people and policy makers should be aware that a severe earthquake may be inevitable in the near term.
The latest USGS report sheds some light on what to expect during a severe earthquake. The report also gives an opportunity for people and policy makers to prepare for a possible earthquake that may have devastating effects on California.
Photo: UCL Mathematical and Physical Sciences | Flickr
