Kazakhstan in 2025: Expectations of Economic Resilience and Growth

As we step into 2025, Kazakhstan stands at a pivotal moment of opportunity and transformation. The challenges of 2024—a year defined by geopolitical shifts and economic uncertainties—have strengthened the region's resilience and highlighted the vast potential of its economies. While Kazakhstan, a regional economic leader, has made remarkable progress, there remain significant opportunities to drive further economic and social growth. Recognising the private sector's critical role in this transformation, Kusto Group remains steadfast in advancing this vision, spearheading initiatives that contribute to the growth of a dynamic and diversified regional economy.

In 2024, Kazakhstan's economy navigated turbulent global headwinds, including financial market volatility, inflationary pressures, and geopolitical challenges stemming from conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza. Despite these challenges, the country maintained a neutral stance and consistently advocated for peace. Through ongoing structural and political reforms, Kazakhstan achieved commendable success in strengthening the resilience of its financial and commercial sectors, sustaining an impressive average GDP growth rate of 4.8%.

Kazakhstan remains the largest economy in Central Asia, contributing over 60% of the region's GDP. Its nominal GDP in 2024 reached approximately $250 billion, a record, far exceeding that of neighbouring economies. The country also leads in foreign direct investment (FDI), accounting for more than 70% of all FDI inflows to Central Asia, with $28 billion secured in 2024 alone.

Weathering the tumultuous geopolitical climate, 2024 was a year of both consolidation and growth for the Kusto Group. In agriculture, the company doubled output from its sustainable farming projects while stabilising operations in war-torn Ukraine. Kusto also pioneered innovative technologies to conserve water and boost crop yields, significantly enhancing land-use efficiency. These initiatives have played a vital role in strengthening food security and supporting rural economies in Ukraine and beyond.

In construction, as part of our expansion into Kazakhstan's real estate market, Kusto Home successfully completed the highly anticipated Koktobe City residential development in Almaty. Over 12 years, we have transformed a once-barren site at the foot of the Koktobe Hills into a vibrant, thriving community that is now home to hundreds of families. Additionally, we continue to grow KazPetrol and its downstream retail brand, Compass, along with KazBeef, two flagship brands that are reshaping the energy and agriculture sectors.

Under my Chairmanship of the Board of Trustees at Almaty Management University, and with Kusto Group's support, the institution has become a hub for nurturing future leaders and fostering innovative thinking that aligns with the region's economic and social ambition. By prioritising entrepreneurial education and practical skills development, the university is actively contributing to building a workforce capable of driving sustainable growth and transformation in the fourth industrial revolution.

These are the very foundations on which Kusto Group was built and continues to operate. Disruptive thinking, combined with international experience and insights, has enabled the company to remain flexible and adaptable, achieving success in diverse markets regardless of the circumstances. Recognising Kusto's pivotal role as a private sector leader, our objective is not only to ensure the success of our company but also to support all of Kazakhstan as it navigates this critical juncture. Through initiatives in sustainable farming, construction, and education, we aim to strengthen the country's resilience to global challenges and pave the way for greater prosperity for future generations.

Climate change provides an urgent example of how vital such private sector efforts are to the present and future of Kazakhstan. With an ambitious goal of achieving net-zero emissions by 2060, the nation is making significant progress by supporting renewable energy projects, including wind, solar, and hydrogen initiatives. Kazakhstan's renewable energy capacity grew by 11% in 2024, solidifying its position as a regional leader in clean energy initiatives. Renewables now account for 4.5% of the nation's energy mix, reflecting its commitment to a more sustainable future, but more must be done to reduce our general dependence on hydrocarbons.

At Kusto, we are developing and embracing new solutions that can improve the sustainability of our operations and contribute to an increasingly sustainable economy. Of course, significant uncertainties remain, including the availability of consistent funding, the development of necessary infrastructure, and the scaling of green technologies to meet growing national energy demands.

Looking forward to 2025, the interplay between government policy and private-sector leadership will be instrumental in addressing these uncertainties and also in determining Kazakhstan's overall trajectory. The nation has the opportunity to position itself not only as an economic leader in Central Asia but also as a global model for sustainable and inclusive development. However, in order to do so, it needs to continue to reinvent and reform itself. This requires balancing growth with environmental stewardship, innovation with social equity, and short-term gains with long-term resilience.

Kusto Group remains committed to being a constructive partner in this journey. While the road ahead is complex, the convergence of strategic foresight, robust public-private collaboration, and a shared vision for the future offers a powerful foundation for success. By fostering innovation, investing in people, and aligning business goals with national priorities, Kazakhstan can chart a new chapter in its economic story—one defined by resilience, adaptability, and shared prosperity for all.

Author Bio:

Yerkin Tatishev

Yerkin Tatishev is a Kazakhstani entrepreneur and philanthropist, best known as the Founder and Chairman of Kusto Group, a multinational conglomerate with interests in real estate, agriculture, oil and gas, and construction, and with annual revenues of over 1bn USD. Mr. Tatishev established Kusto Group in 2002, focusing on promoting sustainable development and driving economic growth in Kazakhstan and beyond. Today, Kusto Group operates in over 10 countries and has become a leader in Kazakhstan's private sector, employing more than 8,000 people worldwide, with its HQ being in Singapore.

In addition to his business achievements, Tatishev is deeply invested in philanthropy and education. He serves as Chairman of the Board of Trustees at Almaty Management University (AlmaU) and has initiated various educational programs aimed at nurturing future business leaders in Kazakhstan. He also founded the Almaty High Tech Academy, an innovative school that redefines education in Kazakhstan. The academy promotes project-based learning and cutting-edge educational practices, equipping students with practical skills to succeed in today's economy.

Kusto Group: https://www.kustogroup.com/

High Tech Academy: https://en.hta.kz/

AlmaU: https://almau.edu.kz/en/

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