The recent court ruling forcing Google to relinquish its lucrative deal as Apple's default search engine has ignited speculation about the tech giant's next move.
This question alerted people to think if Apple can create its own search engine. While the prospect is enticing, the complexities and potential drawbacks make it a daunting endeavor. To say the least, it won't be an easy task even for a billion-dollar company.
The End of Google's Default Search Deal
For years, when users performed a web search through Safari's integrated search bar, the search was automatically conducted via Google-unless the user had manually changed the default search engine. This arrangement existed because Google paid Apple a hefty sum each year to secure its place as the default search engine on iPhones.
According to 9to5Mac, this agreement was highly profitable for both companies. For Apple, the payment was almost pure profit, contributing significantly to its revenue.
For Google, it ensured that the company continued to receive search traffic from a highly valuable demographic. However, this lucrative partnership came under scrutiny, leading to a court ruling that deemed the payment an abuse of Google's dominant position in the search engine market.
Speculation on an Apple Search Engine
In the wake of the court ruling, some industry observers have suggested that Apple might consider developing its own search engine to replace the lost revenue. In 2022, an insider said that an Apple Search engine was possible, but it would take four years to make it happen.
Apple has already been indexing the web for years through its Applebot, originally for Siri and later for training Apple Intelligence. This has led to speculation that Apple has the necessary data and resources to build a search engine that could rival Google's.
The Obstacles of Building a Search Engine
Despite the speculation, creating a search engine is far from a straightforward task. While Apple does have an index of the web, it lacks the vast amount of data Google has accumulated over decades of search engine dominance.
As tech analyst Benedict Evans points out, Google's success is not just about having an index; it's about the massive data generated by users conducting web searches.
Google's search engine operates as a complex reinforcement learning system, continually improving based on user interactions. The more people use Google, the better it becomes at understanding and organizing the web, which in turn attracts even more users. This creates a self-reinforcing cycle that is extremely difficult to break into, even for a company as powerful as Apple.
Revenue Isn't the Driving Factor
Some have argued that Apple could replace the $20 billion it loses from Google's payment with revenue from an Apple search engine. However, this argument overlooks a critical point: while $20 billion is a significant amount, it's not a game-changer for Apple.
In 2022 alone, Apple generated $85 billion from its Services division. Losing the Google payment would be a setback, but it wouldn't disrupt Apple's overall growth trajectory. In fact, the Cupertino firm could recover the lost revenue in about 18 months, given the current growth rate of its Services division.
The Risks Outweigh the Rewards
Developing a search engine would not only be costly, but it would also pose significant risks to Apple's brand. Google's business model relies heavily on collecting vast amounts of user data to improve its services and sell personalized ads. This approach is fundamentally at odds with Apple's commitment to user privacy.
To compete with Google, Apple would have to engage in similar data practices, potentially damaging its reputation as a privacy-focused company.
Moreover, the future of search engines themselves is uncertain. While chatbots haven't yet replaced traditional search engines, they might do so in the near future. Investing billions in creating a search engine could become a losing proposition if the technology becomes obsolete.
