Market research firm IDC has cast a shadow over Apple's ambitious mixed-reality headset, the Vision Pro. Their data predicts a dramatic decline in US sales, raising questions about the device's long-term success.
US Vision Pro Sales Fall Short: 75% Drop Predicted
According to IDC, US sales of the Vision Pro are projected to plummet by a staggering 75% this quarter. Launched in February 2024, the $3,500 headset has yet to hit the 100,000-unit mark in any single quarter.
IDC utilizes various data sources to estimate sales of Apple products, including surveys of consumers and businesses. By analyzing ownership rates within these groups and extrapolating the data to the broader US population, they generate sales forecasts.
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Early Adopters Sated, International Expansion Planned
IDC's analysis suggests that the initial wave of US consumers eager to adopt the spatial computing technology has already purchased the Vision Pro. This leaves only a small market of potential domestic buyers, leading to the predicted sales decline.
However, Apple plans to offset this by expanding international availability. Following its initial US launch, Vision Pro went on sale in three additional countries last month, with five more scheduled for this month.
A More Affordable Model: Key to Growth?
The high price tag is a major barrier identified by IDC. They believe a more affordable model, priced at roughly half of the current Pro version, could rekindle interest in 2025, per Bloomberg. While this might sound promising, IDC also cautions that overall sales may not see a significant rise in the coming year.
Shifting Focus: Cheaper Consumer Model in Development
Reports indicate that Apple is adjusting its strategy due to disappointing Vision Pro sales. They have reportedly abandoned plans for a second-generation Pro model and are now focusing all their efforts on a more consumer-friendly, lower-cost version.
Analysts suggest a price point of around $1,500 would be necessary for mass consumer appeal. However, achieving this price point appears to be a challenge for Apple. Reducing production costs sufficiently to make a $1,500 model viable is proving difficult.
Potential Cost-Cutting Measures: EyeSight Elimination and Tethered Design
Two potential cost-cutting measures have been discussed:
- Eliminating the EyeSight Front Display: Many users consider the EyeSight functionality a gimmick with limited utility. Removing it could significantly reduce production costs.
- Tethered Design: A tethered model, powered by a Mac, has been proposed. While this approach might limit mobility, it could offer a more affordable entry point for consumers.
The success of the Vision Pro hinges on Apple's ability to address the high price tag and potentially broaden the target audience with a more consumer-oriented model. Whether they can achieve this through cost reductions or strategic design changes remains to be seen.
