A Counterpoint Research analysis issued Tuesday predicts that BYD will beat Tesla in battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales this year, increasing its market dominance.

Counterpoint analysts noted that the change highlights "the dynamic nature of the global EV market." CNBC estimated BYD's second-quarter BEV sales at 426,039 units, up 21%. Tesla's second-quarter deliveries fell 4.8% to 443,956 cars.

BYD manufactured nearly 3 million vehicles, including battery-only and hybrid cars, last year, exceeding Tesla's 1.84 million. BYD produced 1.6 million battery-only passenger vehicles and 1.4 million hybrids, while Tesla dominated BEV production.

BYD dominates the BEV market, especially in China, despite losing the top EV vendor Tesla in the first quarter. Counterpoint Research predicts four times more BEV sales in China than North America in 2024.

According to Counterpoint, China will hold over 50% of the global BEV market until 2027 and outsell North America and Europe by 2030.

EU Increased Tarrifs on Chinese EVs To Help European Carmakers

The EU increased tariffs on Chinese EV manufacturers last month to counter the "threat of clearly foreseeable and imminent injury to EU industry." BYD will pay 17.4%, Geely 20%, and SAIC 38.1% on top of the 10% duty on imported EVs. If negotiations with China fail, these interim tariffs will take effect on July 4, the EU Commission said on June 12.

Liz Lee of Counterpoint Research stated that the new tariff rates of the EU "aim to level the playing field" for European EV makers "struggling to compete with lower-priced" Chinese electric cars.

Lee said these tariffs may push Chinese automakers into rising markets, including the Middle East and Africa, Latin America, Southeast Asia, Australia, and New Zealand.

According to the estimate, global BEV sales will reach 10 million in 2024 as internal combustion engine cars fall. EV and battery cost-efficiency and affordability efforts will support this expansion.

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BYD To Open Thailand Facility

Separately, BYD will open its first Southeast Asian facility on Thursday. The $486 million Rayong plant will offer local purchasers discounts of up to 340,000 baht ($9,234) on the Atto 3 SUV.

BYD's Rayong facility can make 150,000 cars yearly and will export to Southeast Asia and Europe, according to Nikkei Asia.

Reduced taxes on imported automobiles and components benefit EV companies in Thailand, increasing the local market. Rever Automotive's aggressive pricing and marketing helped BYD win 40% of Thailand's EV market in 2022.

EV sales in Thailand surged 31.64% from January to May, despite an overall 23.8% drop in car sales. Chinese automakers Neta and Great Wall Motor are also slashing prices to compete.

However, BYD dealers in Thailand are under government investigation after a buyer complained about excessive pricing. The Thai Prime Minister's office ordered the consumer protection agency to investigate.

According to SCMP, the inquiry began after a BYD client alleged a salesperson told them EV costs would rise following a discount promotion. However, the dealership then further dropped pricing, according to a government statement.

BYD Thailand and its only distributor, Rever Automotive, which has over 100 dealerships, has not commented on the matter as of present reporting.

Consumer Protection Board senior officer Passakorn Thapmongkol said they invited the dealers to explain the price drops and "how they plan to resolve the issue for customers."

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