Today, Feb. 2, thousands upon thousands of people from across the nation will be gathering around Punxsutawney Phil's burrow on Gobbler's Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania to wait for his ever-reliable weather forecast for the next several weeks.
Phil, of course, is a groundhog. And according to the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club, there has only been one Punxsutawney Phil since he began his official career as a weather prognosticator in 1887, notwithstanding the fact that groundhogs only live up to six years on average.
According to tradition, if a groundhog emerges from its burrow out of hibernation on a sunny day during the early days of February and he sees his shadow on the ground, he takes it as a sign that winter is not over yet and will continue to drape the lands in cold frost for another six weeks. However, if the day is cloudy and he doesn't see a shadow on the ground, spring is not far away and is just around the corner.
For each year since 1887, America has celebrated Groundhog Day every second day of February, anticipating Punxsutawney Phil's admittedly less-than-accurate predictions. According to enthusiasts, Phil has pretty much predicted the weather with 100 percent accuracy, although the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says the predictions are about 39 percent accurate.
But that doesn't matter much for thousands of people who have come to rely on Phil and his fellow groundhog meteorologists for the weather. In fact, the NOAA's numbers wouldn't have mattered much to farmers in early northern Europe, who needed an indication from nature that it was time to get ready for the spring's planting season.
Groundhog Day actually goes back to ancient times during the Greek and Roman empires, which observed a pagan festival that falls on the midway between the winter solstice and the spring equinox, a day that commonly falls on one of the first few days of February. In the Celtic tradition, if an animal coming out from hibernation on the Imbolc holiday casts a shadow, it means winter will continue for another six weeks.
The festival was passed on to the early Christians of Europe, while the Celtic tradition became part of the Teutons, or Germans. The pagan festival became Candlemas Day, a day to commemorate the purification of the Virgin Mary. On Candlemas Day, which is every Feb. 2, the priests would light a candle to bring light to the darkness of winter. An old English song sums it all up:
"If Candlemas be fair and bright,
Come, Winter, have another flight;
If Candlemas brings cloud and rain,
Go, Winter, and come not again."
As the priests looked to the candles for comfort, the farmers looked to the animals, specifically to the hedgehog or the badger, the most sensible hibernating creatures worthy of trust. However, when the Germans migrated to Pennsylvania, there weren't plenty of hedgehogs or badgers around, so they settled for the second most sensible hibernators, the groundhog.
Of course, all this talk about pagan traditions and festivals do not quite paint an entirely scientific picture as to why groundhogs come out in early February. Stam Zervanos, professor emeritus of biology at the Pennsylvania State University, says groundhogs don't actually emerge in February to predict the weather; they actually emerge to prepare for mating season so that their offspring can have the abundance of food come May.
Zervanos says groundhogs are extremely territorial over the winter and maintain no contact with other males and females as they guard their burrows for hibernation. Come February, it's time to re-establish the social bonds needed to ensure that mating goes on without delay in March.
"Groundhog mating strategies involve temporary emergence in early February, mating in early March during their final arousal, and giving birth in early April," says Zervanos. "This behavior enhances reproductive success because young are born as early as possible (but not too early) and are able to start feeding in May when lots of food is available. That way they have enough time to gain sufficient weight to survive their first winter hibernation."
In other words, groundhogs are like humans too. They take time to oil their social and romantic wheels so that mating is a success.
