Global warming does not really go on a hiatus, according to researchers at the University of Bristol.
The team, writing in the journal Scientific Reports and examining 40 scientific articles from 2009 to 2014 on the topic, argued that there is no substantive proof of a “pause” or hiatus” in global warming contrary to what may be believed.
Study lead Professor Stephan Lewandowsky wondered: why is a body of research framed around a “hiatus” concept when it is likely nonexistent?
“The notion of a ‘pause’ or ‘hiatus’ demonstrably originated outside the scientific community,” he said, pinpointing that the concepts likely entered scientific discourse due to contrarian voices.
The idea of global warning taking a break dates back to at least 2006, first emerging on blogs and eventually penetrating the media and scientific literature. In 2015, at least six studies argued against a pause or hiatus.
The team compared decadal warming trend distribution during the supposed hiatus against other trends of equal length in the entire documentation of modern global warming. According to their findings, all definitions of the term “hiatus” were deemed unexceptional within the context of other trends.
They added that “hiatus” will always be present in a small sample size.
For instance, a third of the articles claimed a hiatus of 12 years and shorter – and they will find one not because of a new or different occurrence but due to the insufficient “statistical power” for trend detection of small sample sizes.
The study concluded that using these terms in climate change talks creates hazards to the public and the science community itself.
Lewandowsky said that scientists may not very well intend to imply that global warming has halted when they use such terms, such as no differences in observed temperatures. “[But] the public is not privy to that tacit understanding,” he warned.
He advised that scientists avoid using “hiatus” or “pause” when one refers to “fluctuations of global mean surface temperature around the longer-term warming trend,” particularly with no proof of such in the global warming phenomenon.
2015 had been predicted to be the hottest year on record, with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announcing January to September this year as the hottest such span in history.
The world is warming, according to NOAA climate scientist Jessica Blunden, pointing to ocean basin measurements showing that surface temperatures are up to three degrees Fahrenheit above the average in the 20th century.
Given that this year will break existing warming record, Lewandowsky said that the routine warming rate fluctuation that a “pause” often refers to has probably “already come to an end.
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