Researchers say they can now better predict which teenagers are likely to become binge drinkers through a new scientific model involving data on 40 variables, from brain function to genetics.
The scientific investigation effort, led by Robert Whelan, Ph.D., a former University of Vermont postdoctoral fellow in psychiatry and current lecturer at University College Dublin, and senior author Hugh Garavan, Ph.D., UVM associate professor of psychiatry, is reportedly the largest adolescent brain imaging study conducted to date.
The researchers say the new predictive model has a 70 percent accuracy rate in predicting which teens will be a binge drinker by the age of 16.
"Our goal was to develop a model to better understand the relative roles of brain structure and function, personality, environmental influences and genetics in the development of adolescent abuse of alcohol," says Whelan in a press release on the study published in the journal Nature.
"This multidimensional risk profile of genes, brain function and environmental influences can help in the prediction of binge drinking at age 16 years," he added.
The research team conducted 10 hours of comprehensive assessments, which included IQ measurement, neuroimaging to assess brain activity and brain structure, as well as personality and blood tests 2,400 14-year-old adolescents at eight different locations in Europe.
The new study supports earlier research in 2012 by the team that identified brain networks that predisposed young adolescents to higher-risk behavior, such as drinking.
The current study focused on determining which teens would be more likely drinking heavily by the age of 16 using data collected at the age of 14.
"Notably, it's not the case that there's a single one or two or three variables that are critical," says Garavan. "The final model was very broad - it suggests that a wide mixture of reasons underlie teenage drinking."
The researchers say some of the top predictors are sensation-seeking traits, family history of drug use and a lack of conscientiousness.
Garavan said the study also notes that bigger brains are also predictive.
"There's refining and sculpting of the brain, and most of the gray matter - the neurons and the connections between them, are getting smaller and the white matter is getting larger," he explains. "Kids with more immature brains - those that are still larger - are more likely to drink."
The research team aims to conduct a more in-depth analysis of brain factors for abuse of other drugs, such as marijuana use.
Smoking was determined to have a huge impact at 14, while pubertal development was found to have less of an impact.
"It's a form of supervised learning," Whelan said. "You tell the computer what the two groups are - either binge drinker or not - and it has to learn what features best distinguish them."
"The final model was very broad: it suggests that a wide mixture of reasons underlie teenage drinking."
