While the smartphone market continues to show robust worldwide shipment numbers, market growth will begin to level off due to market saturation and a slowdown in innovation for higher end models.
Research firm IDC claims global shipments will reach 1.24 billion units in 2014, up 23.1% from 2013 but total volume will only climb to 1.81 billion units by 2018, resulting in a far-slower 12.3% compound annual growth rate from 2013 to 2018, IDC says.
Most of the growth will be in emerging markets with China leading the way shipping over 100 million units in Q1, 2014 alone. Research firm Gartner expects over 440 million smartphones to be shipped in China for 2014, accounting for more than 35 percent of total smartphones shipped during the year globally, making the country the world's largest smartphone market.
India is another emerging market that experts are keeping an eye on as the region shipped 44 million smartphones in 2013 (IDC) and the region is expected to double that number this year with over 90 million units shipped.
Examining the market in China further, despite the fact approximately 100 million smartphones shipped in China in Q1, 2014, this number actually represented a 3% decline sequentially, according to research firm Canalys.
"The Chinese market is undergoing major change and maturing quickly, with smartphones making up 93% of total mobile phone shipments in Q1 2014,'" said Canalys Research Director for China Nicole Peng. "4G will be the biggest growth driver for 2014 in the Chinese market, pushed heavily by China Mobile, which holds a dominant share of the 3G market but still has 70% of its subscribers using 2G."
Further proof that emerging markets will be where the smartphone category sees any future growth is the fact, for the first time, all four BRIC countries appeared among the top 10 smart phone markets, according to Canalys, reflecting the shift in momentum toward the new growth markets that has been occurring over the last few years.
With China first, India was the third largest market, accounting for a 5% share of global shipments. Brazil and Russia were in eighth and tenth place respectively, each at 2%. Combined, the BRIC countries saw shipments of 123.4 million units, equivalent to 44% of the global total.
"New growth and emerging markets represent a collective opportunity that now far outweighs mature markets. Q1, 2014 smartphone shipments represented 65% of the wider mobile phone market. Much of the potential for that number to increase is now focused on emerging markets," said Peng.
