Scientists have discovered that strong tropical cyclones are gradually moving towards the poles. These destructive storms often reach peak intensity in the tropics but research shows that they have been peaking in areas to the North and South of the tropics.
The new research shows that in the past 30 years, tropical storms are peaking further north and south shifting positions at a rate of 35 miles for every decade the passes. The study was led by scientists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations. The researchers published their findings in the online journal Nature.
This gradual shift means that areas located lower latitudes may be facing more danger from these storms. Countries close to the tropics located in higher latitudes on the other hand, may see less danger from strong storms. Areas in the southern part of the Philippines will be relatively safer while countries like South Korea and Japan may bear the brunt of these dangerous cyclones.
"Historical intensity estimates can be very inconsistent over time, but the location where a tropical cyclone reaches its maximum intensity is a more reliable value and less likely to be influenced by data discrepancies or uncertainties," said NOAA National Climatic Data Center scientist Jim Kossin.
While it is now certain that the paths of these tropical cyclones are shifting gradually, the amount of shift can vary depending on the area in question. Over the Atlantic, scientists have not found any indication of the shifting patterns. In areas of the South Indian Ocean as well as the northern and southern areas of the pacific however, the researchers found the greatest rates of migration.
"The rate at which tropical cyclones are moving toward the poles is consistent with the observed rates of tropical expansion," Kossin said. "The expansion of the tropics appears to be influencing the environmental factors that control tropical cyclone formation and intensification, which is apparently driving their migration toward the poles." Kossin is also the lead author of the paper on the subject.
Aside from the shifting paths of the tropical cyclones, scientists have also noted a gradual expansion of the tropical regions of the planet. This expansion further confirms the veracity of the NOAA led study's findings. In previous decades, numerous observations have confirmed the expansion of the tropics. While both of these phenomena are likely to be closely related to each other, independent measurements have been taken further strengthening the scientists' confidence in their findings.
The researchers who conducted the study say that linking the migration of tropical cyclones to the poles with human activities will need further studies and observations. While the phenomenon has been observed and nearly confirmed, further investigation is required in order to find root cause of the problem.
