An association between the increasing temperature of the Black Sea's surface and the extreme rain that paved the way for the disastrous flash flood that occurred in Krymsk, Russia in 2012 has been suggested by scientists.
Since the early part of the 1980s, the eastern Mediterranean and the Black Sea have exhibited a 2-degree Celsius rise in temperature. Now, German and Russian scientists have collaborated to find out the effects of this environmental event on precipitation in the region.
Climate change continues to affect both the status of the atmosphere and the oceans, particularly increasing temperatures. One of the main processes that is believed to cause the persistent warming of the atmosphere is the rise in greenhouse gas emissions.
However, the impact of global warming on mechanisms of the water cycle is not yet fully defined. The alterations noted in the thunderstorms that occur during the extremes of summer and how these patterns may change in the future are still uncertain.
For the study, the researchers simulated the events during the heavy precipitation in July 2012 in Krymsk, which killed 172 people.
"We carried out a number of very-high-resolution simulations with an atmospheric model to investigate the impact of rising sea surface temperatures on the formation of intense convective storms, which are often associated with extreme rainfall," said Edmund Meredith, lead author of the study from GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research.
The results of the study, published in the journal Nature, show that an increase of more than 300 percent in the intensity of precipitation was noted from the surface temperatures in the 1980s compared to the temperature of the present simulations.
The team was able to determine a notable change: convective precipitation reacts to the temperature forcing with a robust, non-linear signal, says Prof. Douglas Maraun, co-author of the research. The intensity of precipitation is heralded by these dramatic shifts in the temperatures of the sea surface.
Ocean warming has subjected the Black Sea and eastern Mediterranean to a more unstable lower atmosphere as a result of these changing temperatures.
