Analysts are predicting that the upcoming Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens movie could manage to surpass $2 billion box office earnings worldwide when the film launches in December.
According to Benjamin Swinburne from Morgan Stanley, it is very much possible for the new Star Wars movie to make $2 billion at the box office.
If that should happen, Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens would become only the third film to hit the mark, right behind Titanic and Avatar.
Interestingly enough, Swinburne believes Disney will seek to earn more from ticket sales this time around. Usually, theaters and movie publishers sign a 50/50 deal, but if Swinburne is correct, Disney could seek a 60/40 deal in its favor.
On the international side of things, Disney might hope to earn 45 percent of the ticket sales if it can.
Should Disney venture down this path, we suspect that not all movie theaters would be in agreement unless Disney sweetens the pot.
When it comes down to merchandising, Swinburne believes that consumers will spend around $3 billion per year on Star Wars licensed toys. Of that number, $215 million will return to Disney.
Outside of toys, Disney might earn $350 million from selling home videos, $100 million from video games, and around $75 million from pay TV globally.
That's a lot of money, although we doubt it will ever happen, at least not for the first film. No other Star Wars movie has ever crossed the $2 billion mark, and as such, we doubt the first film in the new trilogy would. It is likely $1 billion is where we'd put our money. The second and third installments, if they prove to be good films, may become the ones to cross the $2 billion mark.
Bear in mind that Star Wars is mainly a powerful force in the United States, but not so much internationally. The franchise would have to first create new fans before it can sit with Titanic and Avatar in the exclusive $2 billion league.
We will know for sure once the movie launches in December. By the first half of 2016, the signs should be clear whether or not this movie can do the impossible.
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