The Progress 59 spacecraft that went out of control soon after launch is due to crash to Earth sometime on May 8, according to the Russian space agency.
The vehicle was launched to bring thousands of pounds of supplies to the crew aboard the International Space Station. After liftoff on April 28, ground controllers noticed the craft was rotating uncontrollably, making it impossible to dock with the orbiting outpost.
Ever since the mission was declared a failure, mission engineers have been tracking the disabled vehicle, waiting for the craft to fall from the sky. It is impossible to know for sure exactly when Progress 59 will make its fiery re-entry through the atmosphere, or where debris might land. As the vehicle travels through the thin upper reaches of the atmosphere, drag is slowing the craft, reducing its altitude, and subjecting the craft to more air, and increased reductions in speed.
Roscosmos, the Russian space agency, announced on May 6 that it expects the craft to fall to Earth sometime on May 8. Although scientists are able to precisely track the position of the vehicle, the myriad of conditions affecting the vehicle complicate predictions of its final demise. The projected path of the spacecraft carries the vehicle over several highly populated areas around the time of re-entry.
"The flight path goes above Paris in France, after that near Cologne in Germany, then it goes around Kraków in Poland. The path also includes Kiev and Kiev region in Ukraine," an unnamed official with Roscosmos is quoted as saying.
Most of the spaceship, as well as the 3,000 pounds of supplies within it, will likely be destroyed by the extreme heat of re-entry. However, significant amounts of debris could land on the ground, some of which could be hazardous.
Various agencies charged with predicting details of the fall can't agree on how accurately forecasts may be made. The Space Research Institute at the Russian Academy of Sciences believes it can pinpoint the time of re-entry within a three-hour window. The European Space Agency (ESP) has stated its opinion that such a prediction cannot be made with great accuracy. In the United States, the North American Aerospace Defense Command is saying debris will land in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, while the Joint Functional Component Command, managed by the Air Force, is betting on landfall somewhere off the U.S. Pacific coast.
Communication was lost with the ship soon after it reached space, and the craft failed to reach its planned orbit. The Progress M-27M cargo craft was designed to deliver goods to the ISS. Its Kurs navigation system, which is essential to dock the cargo ship to the ISS, contains the two antennae which failed to deploy. The vehicle started to spin out of control, and attempts to re-establish maneuvering capabilities failed.
There is no way of knowing when or where debris will land, but everyone agrees Progress 59 is due to come down, somewhere on Earth, by the end of May 8.
