Researchers from National Cancer Institute (NCI), a division from National Institutes of Health, have revealed a new analysis of data that the number of US women diagnosed with breast cancer will increase by 50 percent by 2030. Around 283,000 cases were recorded in 2011 and based on the analysis, the estimated number will be about 441,000 in 15 years.
The boost in cancer cases can be credited to the maturity of female baby boomers, people born during the Post-World War II between 1946 and 1964 with a population of around 40 million who additionally happen to be surviving longer, as indicated by the scientists. In 2030, when those ladies achieve 70 to 85 years old, the number of American women with breast cancer will abruptly increase from 24 to 35 percent.
The research also discovered that as baby boomers mature out of other age ranges, the cancer rates will go down. For instance, these women who will reach 50 to 69 years old in 2030 will only be composed of 44 percent of recent breast cancer cases, and that is lower from the 55 percent recorded in 2011.
According to Philip Rosenberg, Ph.D. senior researcher in the division of cancer epidemiology and genetics with the NCI, tumors that are responsive to estrogen, called ER-positive tumors, are easier to cure than those tumors not responsive to estrogen, the ER-negative tumors.
The number of ER-negative tumors is estimated to be lower by 2030, Rosenberg analyzed. ER-negative tumors are currently 17 percent of the recorded breast tumors and are assumed to drop to about 9 percent, but the explanation for this decline is not clear. It could be that more career women are having their first baby late in life, and breastfeeding rates have increased in the US. The relationship for all ER-positive tumors has been increasing due to absence of exercise, obesity, and hormones exposure procedures like hormone replacement therapy and birth control pills.
He stated that one in eight American women can expect to be diagnosed of breast cancer sooner in her lifetime. The researchers utilized a mathematical forecasting formula to simulate future cancer rates based on in-house, nationally representative cancer data, and population projections from the U.S. Census Bureau. The research is not yet published and peer-reviewed, but Rosenberg submitted an abstract last Monday at the yearly assembly of the American Association for Cancer Research.
Also Monday, the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force updated its recommendations on screening for breast cancer but made virtually no changes to its 2009 guidelines. As it did six years ago, the panel suggested that women between the ages of 50 and 74 should have mammograms every two years. In particular, women aged 60 to 69 are most likely to avoid death from breast cancer through such screenings, according to the panel, a volunteer group of experts on preventive and evidence-based medicine.
About 232,670 people were diagnosed with new cases of breast cancer in 2014, and about 40,000 people died of the disease that year.
Photo: Army Medicine | Flickr
