Glaciers in western Canada could shrink by as much as 70 percent by the year 2100 due to the effects of global climate change, according to a new study. These glaciers cover more than 10,300 square miles, roughly the size of the state of Vermont.
Simulations predict this melting could raise sea levels worldwide by as much as one-sixth of an inch.
Glaciers form at various angles relative to one another, which causes these frozen formations to send melting water in specific directions depending on the slope in a given area. Most computer simulations ignore this directional flow from melting water.
Climate models modeling the glaciers in three dimensions reveal melting could result in the loss of 25 percent more ice than previously calculated. The simulations predict that the drier Rocky Mountains could lose 90 percent of their coverage by the end of the century, compared with coverage in 2005. Mountains on the Canadian coast, receiving more moisture than those to the east, could lose up to half of their ice mass. The 17,000 glaciers in Alberta and British Columbia will likely see their greatest losses during the decades of the 2030s and 2040s, the computer models suggested.
"Most of our ice holdouts at the end of the century will be in the northwest corner of the province. Soon, our mountains could look like those in Colorado or California, and you don't see much ice in those landscapes," Garry Clarke from the Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences at the University of British Columbia said.
Glaciers play vital roles in the well-being of Canadians. Water from annual melting helps to maintain crops, supply water to homes and fuels tourism. Rivers fed by this water also help to supply residents with electricity through the generation of hydroelectric power.
"These glaciers act as a thermostat for freshwater ecosystems. Once the glaciers are gone, the streams will be a lot warmer and this will hugely change fresh water habitat. We could see some unpleasant surprises in terms of salmon productivity," Clarke said.
Although global climate change could result in increased precipitation that might offset some of the environmental damage done when glaciers disappear, effects of the melting could still severely affect ponds, lakes, streams and other reserves of fresh water around the region, researchers theorize.
The same 3D model of glacier loss could also be adapted to simulate melting of glaciers in other areas of the world, researchers state.
Computer modeling of glaciers in western Canada and analysis of how climate change could affect melting of the features was profiled in the journal Nature Geoscience.
Photo: Marianne Bevis | Flickr
