Over the 15 years, scientists have noticed that the rate at which global temperatures were rising has slowed down considerably. The latest study about strengthening trade winds in the Pacific may shed light on stabilizing surface temperatures.
The new study was published in the online journal Nature Climate Change. Researchers from the University of New South Wales have found that strengthening Pacific ocean cycles may have led to stabilizing air temperatures throughout the world. Due to the fact that the current levels of greenhouse gasses continue to rise, the stabilization of temperatures comes as a bit of a surprise for many scientists. The research team led by Matthew England was able to determine that this was due to an increase in the strength of east-west trade winds passing over the Pacific. In fact, these trade winds are now two times stronger than normal.
"Scientists have long suspected that extra ocean heat uptake has slowed the rise of global average temperatures, but the mechanism behind the hiatus remained unclear" said England who is also the lead author of the study and a chief investigator at the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science.
Due to the strength of the Pacific trade winds, the researchers also observed alterations in the circulation patterns of heat from around the world. These winds are now cooling the eastern part of the Pacific while heating up the western part of the ocean. It is believed that this factor alone is enough to keep global temperatures from rising too fast.
"The winds lead to extra ocean heat uptake, which stalled warming of the atmosphere. Accounting for this wind intensification in model projections produces a hiatus in global warming that is in striking agreement with observations," said England.
While the changes in climate may have halted due to the action of Pacific ocean cycles, scientists believe that this is only temporary. The team reported that the hiatus may last until 2020 if the patterns in Pacific trade winds remain as they are now. Once the Pacific ocean cycles returns to normal, however, scientists expect global warming to intensify once again.
"But the heat uptake is by no means permanent: when the trade wind strength returns to normal - as it inevitably will - our research suggests heat will quickly accumulate in the atmosphere. So global temperatures look set to rise rapidly out of the hiatus, returning to the levels projected within as little as a decade," England added.
