Way back in 2004, few people expected The Spongebob Squarepants movie to be any good. It had been years since Nickelodeon had produced a movie based on one of its shows that was actually worth watching, and with a premise as bizarre as Spongebob, few expected much of anything to come out of the movie.
While it wasn't the greatest movie ever, The Spongebob Squarepants Movie was ultimately what it set out to be: a goofy cartoon movie. The sequel, Sponge Out of Water, is looking to do the same, only better - and it actually has a chance to do so. In fact, it's likely to blow the big-budget Jupiter Ascending out of the water (pun intended).
There are several reasons as to why this is happening: first and foremost, there's not a lot of other competition in theaters right now. In fact, Spongebob's biggest competition is the three-week-old American Sniper - no other movie is poised to make anywhere near as big an impact as Bradley Cooper's war movie or Nickelodeon's new feature.
Secondly, Jupiter Ascending isn't putting up much of a fight. While the film's marketing has picked up in the last several weeks, it's mostly due to overseas interest and YouTube views - two things that don't necessarily mean ticket sales. Combine that with less-than-stellar reviews, and things aren't looking good for the movie.
As it stands, most estimates for Spongebob's opening sales are sitting around $35 million, (though the number does fluctuate). Jupiter Ascending, on the other hand, is only poised to make around $20 million - not a terrible opening, but with a budget of $179 million, it's not going to make the studio any money, either.
Jupiter Ascending, for what it's worth, wasn't an easy film to make. Dismal showings at film festivals like Sundance and multiple delays inflated the budget to a ridiculous degree, and with only a moderate level of interest among viewers, the science fiction epic isn't exactly poised to succeed. Of course, Spongebob is likely to make its money back through sheer brand recognition alone - an advantage that Jupiter Ascending doesn't have.
That being said, Spongebob seems to be the critical darling here. Again, Jupiter Ascending isn't doing well with critics, while Spongebob is doing just fine, and is currently sitting at a 74% rating on Rotten Tomatoes.
While it's important to remember that these box office numbers are all estimates until the weekend is over, at this point, it seems that Spongebob will be the clear winner this weekend...and Jupiter Ascending could be the first big flop of 2015.
Both Spongebob Squarepants: Sponge Out of Water and Jupiter Ascending open on Feb. 6.
