A year ago, a report said that an asteroid as big as the Empire State Building was approaching Earth. However, the planetary rock passed the planet safely without any harm. NASA is now keeping an eye on another celestial object that may hit Earth in 2032.
In the last days of 2024, astronomers discovered an asteroid that soon captured international attention. It was a telescope in Chile and part of NASA-funded Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS), which identified a faint light that could not be placed in any other known stars, comets, or asteroids.
Knowing the Threat from Asteroid 2024 YR4
According to NASA, the asteroid has since been kept under close watch by space agencies, and its discovery was called asteroid 2024 YR4.
Researchers determined that the object will cross Earth in 2028, posing no collision risk. However, its course in 2032 holds a very small yet remarkable chance of impact, 1.9% according to the space agency and 1.8% according to ESA.
The size of 2024 YR4 is estimated to be between 130 and 300 feet (40 to 90 meters) wide—large enough to cause significant damage.
A comparison can be made to the Tunguska event of 1908, which flattened 500 square miles (1,287 square kilometers) of Siberian forest due to an asteroid of a similar size.
The Chelyabinsk meteor of 2013, which caused widespread damage in Russia, was even smaller, measuring just 20 meters across.
If 2024 YR4 were to hit Earth, scientists predict that the explosion would reach up to 30 miles (50 kilometers) from the impact site, depending on whether it explodes in the atmosphere or hits the surface directly.
The Torino Scale: Measuring the Danger
The Guardian reports that astronomers have used the Torino Scale to classify potential asteroid threats. Currently, 2024 YR4 ranks at Level 3, meaning that it needs close observation but is not yet a confirmed impact risk.
Since the adoption of the Torino Scale in 1999, only one other asteroid, Apophis in 2004, has reached a higher Level 4 rating before later being ruled non-threatening.
Although the chances of impact are still low, space agencies emphasize that constant monitoring is essential.
The International Asteroid Warning Network, an affiliated organization of the United Nations, has already listed 2024 YR4 for further observation. This protocol is activated when an asteroid over 10 meters in size has a greater than 1% chance of striking Earth within 20 years.
Challenges in Tracking 2024 YR4's Path
The greatest challenge in the confirmation or rejection of an impact risk is the uncertainty of the asteroid's orbit. At the moment, 2024 YR4 is moving away from Earth in a straight-line trajectory, which means that its future path cannot be precisely calculated. This limits the astronomers' ability to determine gravitational influences and potential trajectory shifts of the asteroid.
The asteroid is further expected to fade from view in April of 2025, leaving astronomers less than adequate opportunities to measure its orbit accurately before it disappears from view. The major observation opportunity will next occur in 2028 and waiting for this may offer too little room before any deflective strategies are employed.
Possible Impact Locations and Risk Factors
In case of an impact, it is anticipated that the potential strike zone may extend from the eastern Pacific Ocean up to northern South America and the Atlantic Ocean, to Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia, Ars Technica writes.
Most asteroids generally tend to strike unpopulated areas or oceanic spaces, but a hit near a largely populated area would be catastrophic enough.
Defending Earth: Probable Intervention Strategies
Following this warning sign, an international team known as the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG), comprising NASA, ESA, China, and Russia, recently met to discuss options for a response. The group has agreed to wait until mid-2025 to make further observations before considering action.
If 2024 YR4 continues to be a major concern, then asteroid deflecting missions would be warranted. In 2022, NASA's DART mission showed it was feasible to alter the orbit of an asteroid by smashing a spacecraft into the asteroid. A similar mission might be launched toward 2024 YR4 if necessary; however, a mission such as this is years in the making.
Another approach may involve nuclear deflection, whereby the asteroid might be pushed out of course through the detonation of a controlled nuclear explosion nearby. However, risks exist here in terms of possibly fragmenting the asteroid into various smaller fragments.
The reality is that asteroid monitoring and defense are essential components of planetary security. According to a 2019 survey, 68% of Americans believe NASA's asteroid detection programs are an important undertaking, ranking it ahead of lunar or Mars exploration.
While 2024 YR4 is unlikely to be a civilization-ending event, it is a reminder of why investing in space research and planetary defense matters.
The coming months will be critical in determining whether the world must prepare for a real-life asteroid deflection mission—or if we can safely cross another space rock off the list of planetary threats.
