EdTech is a rapidly growing market. According to studies, its global volume is approaching $170 billion and is projected to reach $600 billion by 2032. What transformations are currently taking place in the industry, how are EdTech companies navigating competition, and what is driving the resurgence of offline learning?
Ilnar Shafigullin, an expert in online education and data science, is the Chief Methodology Officer at GeekBrains, one of the largest EdTech companies in the CIS. Under his leadership, a product he developed at GeekBrains reached the peak of its popularity, generating over $2 million in monthly revenue and attracting approximately 2,500 new students. Before joining GeekBrains, Shafigullin served as Head of Methodology at Skillbox, another leader in online learning in the former Soviet Union. The educational platform he developed became the methodological foundation for training programs that benefited over 600,000 students.
Ilnar Shafigullin has published numerous scientific papers and served as an expert and jury member at prominent IT events, including the international hackathon "Digital Breakthrough" in 2023.
As an EdTech expert, what trends are you seeing in the industry right now?
Although the global EdTech market has faced a dip in growth over the past few years, it continues to expand. The number of players in the industry is also increasing, with many developing in new regions. For example, leading EdTech companies from the CIS, where the market has been thriving in recent years, are now successfully operating in Brazil, India, Southeast Asia, and Africa.
In the CIS, educational programs are becoming shorter. In the past, many programs were designed to last 1–3 years, as they were more expensive and, therefore, more profitable for companies to offer. However, the demand is now shifting toward faster training. One contributing factor is the rising interest rates on loans, often used to pay for costly programs. As a result, vendors are being forced to redesign their products to meet the changing needs of the market.
Another trend worth highlighting is the shift to recorded courses. "Live" training involves higher costs for staffing and organization. As mentioned earlier, costly programs are becoming less in demand. To address this, many companies are turning to text-based or video-based training.
You noted a slowdown in market growth. Would you attribute this to a correction following the boom during the pandemic, or are there other factors at play?
The first wave of rapid growth in demand for online learning was driven by the pandemic. During that time, programming emerged as a reliable profession that could provide a stable income in the new realities. This led to a surge in IT education and increased the income of market leaders in the CIS, such as GeekBrains, Skillbox, and others. Another factor that contributed to the growth was the introduction of money-back guarantees. This allowed students to receive a refund if they were unable to secure a job after completing the course.
The sharp increase was naturally followed by a correction. Many students who were initially interested in IT professions have already mastered the necessary skills, while others were unable to transition successfully into the field and have shifted to different industries. However, it's important to note that despite this adjustment, the EdTech sector continues to grow. The need for innovative approaches and expansion into new markets has become even more evident.
What innovative approach have you introduced at GeekBrains?
I have developed a completely new method of forming educational trajectories for students, which is based on career guidance and follows the principle of progressing from simple to complex.
Previously, IT training programs offered linear courses in specific specialties, such as Java developer, Python developer, or C++ developer. In this system, students had to choose a narrow career path right from the start. The main challenge here is that, at the beginning, most students lack a deep understanding of the various IT professions. As a result, they often make random choices or rely on the advice of friends. This can lead to disappointment if they later realize the field they chose isn't a good fit or is no longer in high demand.
On the other hand, companies are required to invest in developing a large number of materials for different educational tracks, even when the content is similar. These programs are often managed by separate teams, which increases preparation costs and complicates control.
An effective solution to these problems emerged from my academic experience. I graduated from the Faculty of Mechanics and Mathematics at Kazan State University, where, for the first two years, my classmates and I studied under the same educational program. It wasn't until the third year that we were divided into different departments. Some of us specialized in algebra and discrete mathematics, others in mathematical analysis, and so on.
I proposed applying a similar approach to GeekBrains' online courses to significantly change and improve the process and outcomes—benefiting the students and our education platform.
How did you apply this approach in your "Developer" product?
"Developer" is an innovative and flexible product that offers students an alternative approach to learning. In the first two months, all students learn the basics of programming, familiarize themselves with languages and databases, and gain a broad understanding of various IT specialties. After this foundational period, students are divided into groups by specialized groups, such as project managers, testers, and so on. After a few months, they choose a more specific career path, such as game developer or DevOps engineer, among many other options.
The unique concept enables students to make more informed decisions about their career paths. If someone is unsure between two specialties, they can explore both and choose the one that aligns better with their interests and strengths. Additionally, if a student realizes their mistake in the course of training, they have the opportunity to change direction free of charge.
At GeekBrains, this approach has provided two important advantages. First, by having all students start with the basics, which are updated less frequently, the company reduces the need for constant updates to education materials, resulting in lower preparation costs.
Second, this approach creates a single point of entry for all students, which is particularly beneficial for companies that maintain synchronous learning formats—where students interact with instructors in real time. To launch new streams cost-effectively, these companies need to recruit a specific number of participants, which can be challenging for more niche specialties. With the "Developer" product, GeekBrains no longer needs to wait for a group of students to learn the conditional language, like the Go programming language. Instead, they can steadily launch new streams twice a month.
Why did GeekBrains prioritize synchronous training despite the extra costs?
Synchronous learning offers many advantages, as various studies show that it increases student engagement. Students can ask questions, seek clarifications in real time, and participate in discussions and brainstorming sessions, all of which enhance the learning experience. The live format also helps students stay focused and avoid procrastination, as well as reduces cognitive load—the amount of information held in short-term memory at any given time. This results in less mental fatigue for students.
To provide clients with the flexibility to study at their own convenience and to streamline the recruitment of instructors, I suggested adding an element of asynchronous training to the program. We brought in experienced experts and recorded the lectures with professional video production and editing. For practical sessions, we used webinars, allowing students to apply what they had learned by solving problems and engaging directly with instructors for any questions. To further support the instructors, we prepared detailed methodological materials. From our experience, it is easier to find a specialist who can conduct a webinar than to find an experienced lecturer who can convey information effectively and engage the audience.
What was your role in the development of this product?
I was responsible for creating and implementing the product. My tasks included analyzing and identifying problems, developing a competency matrix (a list of the knowledge and skills students should acquire in each course and lesson), creating a comprehensive methodology, building trajectories, and evaluating the results based on methodological and business metrics. I also coordinated a team of methodologists, experts, and instructors and provided training for newcomers. I played a key role in organizing events to promote the product to an audience of over 10,000 people.
In addition, I conducted and recorded the first lectures. My many years of teaching experience allowed me to teach classes on the fundamentals of programming for small groups of up to 50 students and larger groups of over 300 students.
In what ways has the new product benefited the company?
The product replaced about 80% of GeekBrains' existing educational products. As a result, the company stopped losing clients and was able to effectively train tens of thousands of students. Thanks largely to "Developer," GeekBrains emerged as a sales leader in the Russian-speaking market for professional IT education, becoming one of the most recognizable brands in this segment. What's more, demand for GeekBrains products also grew among international users. The startup evolved into a major player, ranking among the top 5 EdTech companies in the CIS, with over 6 million students.
Many competitors have since incorporated elements of "Developer" into their practices, and now most of the largest platforms use a similar approach. This clearly demonstrates that the product has changed the online learning market. We have managed to create what can be considered ideal conditions for individuals to transition into a new profession without unnecessary risks.
What's the level of competition in the online education market today?
The industry is highly competitive, which is why, paradoxically, I see significant potential in the offline education sector. The level of competition is much lower in this space.
Over the past five years, online learning has become the norm, and for some, it's starting to feel repetitive. For others, live interaction in a group setting has always been an essential part of the learning experience. While there are fewer companies specializing in offline education, they attract clients without the need for large advertising budgets. Offline schools have their own unique promotional strategies, such as hosting open days where prospective students can meet with representatives and sign up for courses. In my opinion, shifting towards offline now is a sensible decision.
Of course, not all venues are prepared for this shift. The offline learning business model involves additional investments in premises, equipment, and infrastructure. However, there are many examples of companies successfully developing in this segment, expanding, and opening branches in different cities. Notable examples include the computer academy SHAG, Synergy, and Skillbox.
What other areas should companies in the education sector focus on developing?
I see that the children's education industry is growing. Similar to the offline sector, there is less competition, making it easier and more cost-effective to promote. What sets children's education platforms apart is their active use of virtual worlds like Roblox, CoSpaces, and Minecraft. These platforms make courses more engaging and interactive, increasing student participation while helping them acquire practical, real-world skills, including programming.
