A recent study predicts a significant demographic shift over the next few decades due to declining fertility rates, with profound implications for economies worldwide.
According to research published in The Lancet medical journal, by 2050, approximately three-quarters of countries are projected to fall below the population replacement birth rate of 2.1 babies per female. This trend is expected to have far-reaching effects on global dynamics, migration patterns, and international relations.
Regional Variations in Birth Rates
The study highlights that by 2100, only six countries are anticipated to maintain population-replacing birth rates. These include Chad, Niger, and Tonga in Africa, Samoa and Tonga in the Pacific, and Tajikistan in central Asia.
Conversely, the majority of new births are projected to occur in low-income regions of sub-Saharan Africa and Asia, accounting for 49 countries.
Social, Economic, and Geopolitical Impacts
The shifting demographic landscape is poised to bring about profound changes in various aspects of society, economy, and geopolitics. The report underscores the challenges posed by shrinking workforces in advanced economies, necessitating significant political and fiscal interventions. Furthermore, it emphasizes the need for liberal migration policies to address these demographic challenges effectively.
Economic Ramifications of Demographic Trends
While the study does not quantify the precise economic impact of demographic shifts, it highlights a divergence between high-income and low-income countries in terms of birth rate trends.
Over the past few decades, the global total fertility rate has seen a significant decline, driven by factors such as economic development, women's workforce participation, and government policies like China's one-child policy.
Global Population Projections
Despite declining fertility rates, the global population is projected to reach 9.7 billion by 2050 and peak at around 10.4 billion in the mid-2080s. However, advanced economies, including China, India, and South Korea, are already experiencing fertility rates well below the replacement rate. Conversely, lower-income countries are expected to contribute significantly to global births, with sub-Saharan Africa alone accounting for half of all new births by 2100.
In an interview with CNBC, Dr. Christopher Murray, a director at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, said that the economy size will tend to decline as the workforce decreases. He added that many challenges will put the countries to the test in the absence of liberal migration policies.
"AI (artificial intelligence) and robotics may diminish the economic impact of declining workforces but some sectors such as housing would continue to be strongly affected," he continued.
Poorer Countries Can Gain Leverage But How
The study suggests that lower-income countries may gain leverage in negotiating migration policies as they become essential players in addressing the impacts of climate change, according to Murray.
In other news, Tech Times reported that the US fell to 23rd in the recent Global Happiness Rankings. According to the latest World Happiness Report, this was the first time that the country was absent from the top 20 since 2012, the year when the Happiness Report started.
