Apple is the world's most successful smartphone maker, with sales that continue to defy gravity and a legion of customers who wouldn't consider ditching their iPhones for another option. But could Apple make an even bigger splash in the smartphone market with a foldable iPhone?
For years, rumormongers have said Apple is working on a foldable iPhone to compete with Samsung's Galaxy Z Fold or Google's Pixel Fold handsets. But earlier this week, new details emerged from Apple's supply chain (via serial leaker Revegnus) that the company is moving ahead with its foldable plans and could launch the handset as soon as 2027.
The foldable iPhone's launch date has been nothing if not a moving target. We've heard rumors that the handset, which could be known as the iPhone Flip, was going to launch in 2023. Last year, some reports suggested the device would be available in 2024. Still, others have said the iPhone Flip would hit store shelves years from now.
Along the way, Apple hasn't said when it would launch the iPhone Flip, let alone whether it's even working on a foldable iPhone.
Indeed, Apple's success in the smartphone market begs the question of whether the company should ever launch a foldable iPhone in the first place.
Who Needs a Foldable?
Apple's iPhone business is a juggernaut that has been strikingly resilient over the years. During its fiscal first quarter ended December 30, 2023, Apple announced iPhone sales of $69.7 billion, up from $65.8 billion in the previous year. And with no signs of that slowing down and the promise of another sales lift from this year's iPhone 16 lineup, there's no reason to believe Apple's smartphone business should slow down anytime soon.
Meanwhile, the foldable phone market continues to be a small slice of the broader smartphone market. Foldable phones represented just 2% of the smartphone market last year, according to IDC. And while IDC believes that could grow to 3.5% within the next three years, it would translate to just $42 billion in global revenue - less than Apple generated on iPhone sales last quarter alone.
Why, then, would Apple even consider getting into a niche market and trying its hand at foldables when consumers don't seem overwhelmingly desiring such a device?
Do Consumers Want an iPhone Flip?
In an interview with Tech Times, Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives acknowledged that Apple doesn't necessarily need to launch a foldable iPhone, but he believes there's "demand" for the handset and Apple could be planning a foldable to steal market share from its chief rival, Samsung.
"There is a segment of the Apple customer base they are going after [that wants a foldable iPhone]," Ives said. "And this will enable some market share gains from Samsung."
Samsung is the top foldable maker in the world, with 72% market share, according to market researcher DSCC. However, Samsung's market share has been declining as more competitors enter the market: in 2022, its foldable market share hovered at 86%.
Global Equities Research analyst Trip Chowdhry sees no other option for Apple but to launch a foldable iPhone. He believes Apple knows that demand for a foldable iPhone would be high, and consumers are clamoring for a handset that could bring new features and a new design to the iPhone lineup.
"Demand will be off the charts, as it will have all the must-have upgrades," Chowdhry said. "People will get the foldable iPhone because it will be about the technology experience instead of simply replacing an old phone due to wear and tear."
Chowdhry believes Apple will utilize artificial intelligence in the foldable to enhance the user experience and ultimately make it a sought-after device.
"The foldable iPhone will include over-and-above new experiences, with generative AI being the major contributing factor," Chowdhry said. "All current foldables will be obsolete in comparison."
That again begs the question of when we can expect a foldable iPhone to hit store shelves. And again, the timing is all over the map.
Ives told Tech Times that he believes the foldable iPhone could be unveiled later this year. Chowdhry, however, said that Apple will wait to launch the device "until it's ready," but believes it'll hit store shelves within the next two years.
"They will not release it until it's perfect," Chowdhry said.
But perfection may not necessarily translate to a sizable new business for Apple, a company that sold more than 230 million iPhones last year. When the foldable iPhone launches, Ives said, Apple will likely only sell "less than 20 million units in the first year."
Only Apple can determine if that's enough of a lift to justify spending big on a small foldable market. But if any company can make the market big, it's Apple. We just don't know when it'll finally deliver on its long-rumored foldable.
Don Reisinger is a longtime freelance writer who has written on topics as far-ranging as technology and business to science topics. His work has appeared in a variety of publications, including Fortune, Inc., The New York Times, Business Insider, Tom's Guide, and many others. Follow him at https://muckrack.com/donreisinger and https://twitter.com/donreisinger
