Social cost estimates of climate change are too low, according to some scientists at Stanford University. The actual costs of carbon pollution could be up to six times higher than U.S. Government estimates, the researchers determined.
The Obama Administration currently estimates the total cost of atmospheric carbon emissions at $37 a ton. However, the Stanford researchers involved in this study believe total costs of greenhouse gases could be as high as $220 a ton. The difference is due to the effects of global warming at hampering the economic growth of nations over the course of decades, or even centuries.
"For 20 years now, the models have assumed that climate change can't affect the basic growth rate of the economy. But a number of new studies suggest this may not be true. If climate change affects not only a country's economic output but also its growth, then that has a permanent effect that accumulates over time, leading to a much higher social cost of carbon," Frances Moore, a doctoral student at Stanford's School of Earth Sciences, said.
An integrated assessment model (IAM) is usually used to estimate the total costs to society of releasing greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Recent research by other investigators points to evidence that climate change could hinder economic growth, particularly in developing nations. Nations including the United States, England, Mexico and France use IAM estimates to evaluate environmental policies and legislation. However, these estimates do not take dampening of economic growth caused by climate change into account. Researchers adapted their model to account for those changes, as well as adaptation to a changing climate. Nations in the study were labeled as having either high or low incomes, to examine how economic strength altered results.
"There have been many studies that suggest rich and poor countries will fare very differently when dealing with future climate change effects, and we wanted to explore that," Delavane Diaz of Stanford University, said.
High temperatures can harm both industrial and agricultural output, according to research conducted over the last several years. Political structures can also become less stable as temperatures rise, according to the research team.
Temperature shocks from more frequent storms, and declines in labor, capital, and technology could add up over time, hindering economic growth, investigators report. However, the study assumes climate change will continue to impact smaller economies to a greater extent than wealthier nations, presenting problems with the model.
Temperature impacts on economic growth warrant stringent mitigation policy, detailing possible hidden costs of carbon emissions, was published in the journal Nature Climate Change.
