The coronavirus pandemic has taken over 300,000 lives worldwide and caused massive joblessness, leading to many companies. However, there are a few sectors that are currently booming and benefiting from this crisis.
According to The Next Web, some countries are locked down while many nations are now reopening. According to some analysts, the 2020 automotive market may decline by 10% to 15% in China. Meanwhile, 15% to 25% in Europe and the United States. This damage has started to trickle down to startups and tech development industries.
Although this may be too early to anticipate, these firms are likely winners and losers of the pandemic based on the drivers that constitute the future of mobility.
The pandemic winners
Electrification - The impact of the COVID-19 on electric vehicles (EV) will result in various outcomes depending on the region. The trends are affected by local, crisis-induced financial incentives, increased awareness of the impact of fossil fuel-powered vehicles on air quality, and lower fuel prices.
In Europe and China, CO2-related regulations will unlikely to ease, though any related penalties may be delayed. In contrast, relaxed CAFE standards, the lack of federal appetite for clean vehicles, and low fuel prices in the U.S. will make EVs a loser in this crisis, except for more CO2-sensitive coasts. Several OEMs with a significant presence in Europe or China re-confirmed their EV investment programs at the expense of ICE-powertrain updates.
Micro mobility. Privately-owned micromobility is likely to be a clear winner. Micro mobility like scooters, bikes, and mopeds are now more popular in our mobility habits while sharing transit is currently a losing mode of transport. This trend is likely to last as some people are reluctant to use public transit or their private cars. Many cities are creating temporary bike lanes while others like Milan, London, and Seattle are building a permanent solution to alleviate pollution. Moreover, Italy is offering incentives amounting to 500€ ($556.99) for buying bikes and scooters.
e-Commerce. According to the New York Times, the lockdown has massively boosted e-commerce, and home deliveries as more people shop online, which accelerates an existing long term trend. Amazon hired over 100,000 people to address the increased demand while Uber has seen its Eats business to grow, although its ride-hailing business went down by about 80%. Similarly, Walmart's online grocery app monthly downloads triple. Experts think the current spike in e-commerce is temporary, although it with have a positive long term trend.
Last-mile delivery. Last-mile delivery companies are seen to gain from the crisis. We can also expect retail, e-commerce, and logistics companies to invest in this type of technology. Like Uber Eats, many ride-hailing drivers now deliver food while Target announced it was buying assets of same-day delivery startup Deliv.
The pandemic losers
Automotive supply. The automotive supply chain, including suppliers, OEMs, and dealers, is losing much from the crisis, which may extend until 2021. Source: CLEPA
Ridesharing/shared micromobility. Many operators have already closed down while the excessive valuation of some is already dropping like Lime's recent $170M round led by Uber at a valuation down 80%. Indeed, shared micro-mobility remains a very good solution for short distances or as an alternative to public transit.
Shuttles and robotaxis. These solutions will likely suffer from less investment in AV tech and new distancing habits. However, more mature players like Navya, EasyMile, and May Mobility are generating revenue from pilots and limited commercial deployment.
