Campi Flegrei, a supervolcano sitting within the Bay of Naples in southern Italy, is stirring nearly 500 years after its last eruption.
According to researchers, after analyzing the 60,000-year history of the supervolcano, Campi Flegrei has entered the beginning of a new eruption cycle. It will erupt again, although no one can say when and how massive the damage might be.
Campi Flegrei Supervolcano Awakens
In the study published by the journal Science Advances, researchers created a simulation of the conditions that may lead to the eruption of Campi Flegrei. They used data collected from volcanic rocks and glass thrown out by previous eruptions to get an idea of the supervolcano's sleeping and waking cycles.
To note, the last eruption of Campi Flegrei happened in 1538 which created Monte Nuovo, a small new mountain. Two other major eruptions happened 39,000 and 15,000 years ago.
By looking back in time, the researchers were able to identify a rhythm to the supervolcano's upsurges and, right now, they predicted that the magma beneath is already in its building phase.
Campi Flegrei's Cycle
The first stage of the supervolcano's cycle begins with a slow build-up of magma. This will lead to a massive eruption, causing a formation called a caldera. No one knows when this will happen, but the first big eruption will trigger a series of regular but smaller outbursts as magma escapes through new holes in the crust.
Finally, the eruption will be less frequent, although magma will continue to build up until it is ready for another major eruption. The cycle begins again.
When Will Campi Flegrei Next Erupt?
While Campi Flegrei is stirring, the researchers assured that there is nothing to be worried about yet. They cannot predict when it will happen, but a major eruption will likely not occur until far into the future. The possibility that a major event from the supervolcano will happen in this lifetime is very low.
In addition, Campi Flegrei, which has 1.5 million people living within its caldera and surrounding areas, is one of the most monitored volcanoes in the world. Scientists are likely to pick up signs if the supervolcano is about to explode.
"As often happens in scientific research, the data collection and analysis may be more important than the immediate interpretations, which in fact are not so well constrained," stated Claudia Troise of the Vesuvius Observatory, the team that monitors the activity of Campi Flegrei.
