With an install base of approximately 1 billion, mobile game downloads are projected to double from 30 billion annually to 60 billion by 2018, according to a new pair of studies. Free-to-play games account for one-third of the time spent gaming, but only 10 percent of gamers don't play free titles.
In an IDC report obtained by GamesIndustry, Lewis Ward, IDC's research director of gaming, calls mobile gaming the brightest star of the game industry. It shines so bright it's poised to send portable consoles twinkling and fading into the darkness, according to Ward.
"In this context, it will become increasingly difficult for the major handheld game console providers to compete effectively," says Ward. "The market as a whole will grow rapidly, though, and swing dramatically in the direction of Asia/Pacific and Android-based devices in particular by 2018."
While Dota 2 and League of Legends dominate on PCs, Ward says he believes mobile versions of Multiplayer Online Battle Arenas (MOBAs) are primed to break out in 2015. While there are obstacles holding the mobile versions of MOBAs back in the areas of player communication, Ward says advances in infrastructure and gaming innovations will drive the genre forward next year.
"One of the big barriers to mobile MOBAs, however, is the fact that multiplayer VOIP is hamstrung," says Ward. "It's basically very tough to do live co-op games that leverage VOIP today, so this important, team-based aspect of MOBAs is practically missing from [the] mobile environment. Part of the issue here in the U.S. is that there are 911 system integration issues to be worked out on smartphones that, of course, don't apply on PCs or consoles."
Mobile gaming has been propelled to mainstream success by the free-to-play models, also known as "freemium" games. An Insights Meta survey, obtained by VentureBeat, found the market for paid apps, those purchased up front, is stronger than many people believe it to be.
Insights Meta found that the approximately 31 percent of mobile gamers play paid apps, which is right around the 32 percent of gaming enthusiasts who play premium games on PC and the 33 percent who do so on consoles.
"The paid download share is much larger than people realize," says Jason Anderson, president of Insights Meta. "Publishers have an understanding of how their own individual titles are performing in that regard. I don't know that people realize how successful it is becoming across all titles."
