A massive asteroid collision with Earth may be a remote possibility. Yet advanced preparations to tackle such an emergency before it becomes a reality will be apt.
This was the driving spirit of a joint meeting of NASA and the Federal Emergency Management Agency held at El Segundo in California on Oct 25.
According to NASA, both NASA and FEMA are acknowledged partners in crafting suitable strategies for safeguarding people and communities in such a calamity.
At the meeting, a simulated scenario was played out with a probability of impact ranging from 2 percent to 100 percent before the eventual strike of the asteroid.
"It's not a matter of if - but when - we will deal with such a situation," said Thomas Zurbuchen, associate administrator for NASA's Science Mission Directorate in Washington.
The need to exercise caution about a low-probability yet high-impact disaster was underscored by Craig Fugate, FEMA administrator.
NASA with its space and the Earth-based network has been keeping a tab on asteroids, which number around 10,000. Among them, 10 percent of the near-Earth objects or NEOs have a diameter of 3,300 feet and can cause huge devastation if they fell on Earth.
Generally, asteroid impact hazard is relayed to FEMA through the Planetary Defense Coordination Office of NASA.
According to estimates, a space rock larger than 25 meters (82 feet) can wreak serious local damage. If it is anything more than 1 or 2 kilometers, it can be a global catastrophe.
Response Mechanisms
Zurbuchen noted that unlike in the past, there are effective mechanisms in place now to respond to the impact by way of enhanced observations, predictions, response planning and mitigation.
The meeting of emergency managers discussed how to use data for addressing unique challenges of an asteroid impact through adequate preparedness, response and public warning.
The meeting had representatives from NASA, FEMA, NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, the Department of Energy's National Laboratories, the U.S. Air Force and the California Governor's Office of Emergency Services.
Simulation Analysis
At the meeting, a simulation was played out over a strike scenario that might unfold in 2020 with the observations tracking it since 2017.
The fictitious asteroid was zoomed in all probability from 2 percent to 65 percent until at 100 percent it impacts the Earth on Sept. 20, 2020. The scenario projects the asteroid to be 300 to 800 feet across in size and hitting the Earth anywhere including a narrow stretch bordering the United States.
The inputs on impact footprint models, population displacement estimates and infrastructure damage data were presented by fellows from JPL, Aerospace Corporation, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and Sandia National Laboratories.
Attendees looked at ways to provide clear and substantive information while scotching rumors and misinformation in the days building up to the hypothetical impact.
NASA Planetary Defense Officer Lindley Johnson called the exercises "invaluable" and said it was imperative for the asteroid science community to engage with FEMA.
