The world is abuzz with Microsoft's big unveiling of Windows 10 today, but the company actually quietly launched an innovative, new product yesterday that could greatly impact how we see the world.
Meet Microsoft Prediction Lab, a new website that crowdsources for predictions on major upcoming events. Part-game, part-survey, part-poll predictor, Microsoft Prediction Lab allows users to vote and bet on the outcome of events ranging from the 2014 U.S. Elections to sporting events to how many states will legalize gay marriage by a certain date.
Sounds pretty neat, right? However, you can't just go around making predictions all will-nilly. That would be irresponsible. Each new prediction costs 100 points, but users are able to move this value up or down, so you're essentially betting with points Microsoft gives to you free of charge when you sign up. The larger the bet, the greater the reward if your prediction comes true. Apparently, putting something on the line for the users makes their predictions more accurate.
There's another catch with Microsoft Prediction Lab, because there is always a catch. In order to participate in Microsoft Prediction Lab, you have to register with your Facebook, Microsoft or Google Plus account, which all include your age and gender information. You also have to include your name and address when you sign up, although Microsoft says it only uses that information to see which Congressional races you're able to vote in. Because some of the questions featured in Microsoft Prediction Lab are on the personal side, such as asking you how long your morning commute is and your views on abortion, as PCWorld points out, it's possible Microsoft could use your data in ways that most sites use your personal data, i.e. to probably give that information to advertisers.
Microsoft Prediction Lab works as a showcase of sorts for the work of David Rothschild, a Microsoft researcher who successfully predicted the outcomes of the Scottish independence referendum vote, the winners of all 15 World Cup knockout games and the winner in all of the states except for the District of Columbia in the 2012 presidential election. Unlike normal surveys, the Microsoft Prediction Lab encourages users to come back and vote again and again on the same questions to show how the opinions of voters changes over time. "Not only did we match the accuracy of major polling companies, but we also provided a lot of insight that they weren't able to get, through the fact that we had people coming back again and again," Rothschild said in a statement regarding a survey of Xbox users leading up to the 2012 presidential election.
There are certainly worse ways to waste time on the Internet than using Microsoft Prediction Lab. Knowing that Microsoft is probably going to use your personal data leaves kind of a bad taste in my mouth, but that's just the way we live today. Have fun, kids!
