Google search trends are not just for marketers, but also for health experts and policymakers. For one, they offer a view into the incidence of chickenpox and the impact of its vaccine.
Researchers recently discovered that the virus may actually be a seasonal affliction, with more cases being reported in the spring.
While a vaccine protects against the childhood disease that remains present throughout the world, the incidence is typically unknown because of underreporting. Thus, a team of scientists used Google Trends to find answers.
Google search data from 36 countries revealed that chickenpox epidemics occur at varying times of the year in the northern versus the southern hemisphere. Epidemics in the former peaked in the spring or from February to June, while those in the latter had a six-month shift with higher Google searches for "chickenpox" in the spring, or from August to December.
Interestingly, countries with mandated chickenpox immunization, such as the United States, had lost their seasonal epidemics of the disease. This reflected the effectiveness of the vaccination program to keep infections at bay.
“We found a strong correlation between Google searches and clinical cases in countries that do not have nationwide immunization (Estonia, Mexico and Thailand), but a weaker correlation for the [United States] and Australia – both countries that vaccinate,” lead author Kevin Bakker from the University of Michigan told ResearchGate.
The results of the study, however, could be deemed limited given that covered areas were located in temperate regions with Internet access and a population educated enough to search for the disease’s information online.
But infectious disease expert Dr. William Schaffner of the Vanderbilt University Medical Center echoed the results, saying that the seasonality of chickenpox is “much more muted” in countries where there are routine immunizations. The online searches, he proceeded, were not about the disease symptoms but rather about vaccines.
According to Bakker, the findings confirmed that Google Trends could serve as a proxy for or supplement to clinical cases, which are actually made available by very few nations.
“If I go to Google Trends you can see the top trends in data anywhere in the world,” he said in an ABC News report, comparing it to taking one’s child to the doctor, who will then send the case report to state health officials and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that will compile the information.
The findings were scheduled for publication in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
Photo: Jako Jellema | Flickr
