Just as some insects reduce the severity of wildfires, human activity stamps an opposite effect: it could be blamed for driving an increase in the phenomena's frequency and location, a new study revealed.
Researchers from George Washington University (GWU) examined wildfires in California and found that human activity - which is given little attention in scientific literature - has as much impact on wildfire frequency and location as climate influences.
This suggests that most of the models of wildfire predictions do not account for human factors, and therefore, can become misleading when identifying drivers or causes of wildfires.
How Human Activity Affects Wildfires
While climate change influences the severity of fire season as well as the amount and vegetation, humans contribute by deciding where structures are built. They also contribute to the frequency and location of ignitions from different sources, which include cigarettes thrown on the highway or electrical poles that topple down because of Santa Ana winds.
As a result, GWU scientists say humans are responsible for at least 90 percent of California wildfires.
Associate Professor Michael Mann, lead author of the study, said we do not have much control over how climate change will trigger future wildfires, but we can influence the other half of the equation: variables that control our own impact on the landscape.
Wildfire Predictions
The research team also developed a new model that proportionately includes human behavioral threats and climate change, allowing scientists to accurately predict how much land in California is in danger of burning through 2050.
Researchers found that from 1999 to 2011, California reported an average of $160 million in yearly wildfire-related damages, with about 13,000 homes affected. In their model, Mann and his colleagues estimated that wildfire damages will more than triple by the middle of the century, increasing the annual cost to at least half a billion dollars.
"This information is critical to policymakers, planners and fire managers to determine wildfire risks," said Mann.
What We Should Do
So how do we reduce our impact on wildlife severity, frequency and location? Mann suggests that housing development incentives should be removed in areas prone to wildfire, public land should be better managed and current firefighting approaches should be improved.
The findings of the study are published in the journal PLOS ONE.
Photo: Daria Devyatkina | Flickr
