Run for the hills! A megadrought is coming!
Although it sounds like an excellent offering from the wonderful folks who bring us Syfy original movies like “Sharknado” and “Mega Python vs. Gateroid,” a megadrought is a very real threat facing California and other Southwestern states.
Extended droughts are devastating. And researchers point out that these events can “exact regionally unprecedented socioeconomic tolls and ecological consequences.” So it’s extremely disconcerting and alarming that new research by Cornell University, University of Arizona, and U.S. Geological Survey researchers warns that the drought situation in the Southwestern United States isn’t getting better anytime soon.
The study, “Assessing the Risk of Persistent Drought Using Climate Model Simulations and Paleoclimate Data,” shows that the likelihood of a megadrought – one lasting more than 30 years – is much more likely than previous computer models have predicted.
“For the Southwestern U.S., I’m not optimistic about avoiding real megadroughts,” says Cornell assistant professor of earth and atmospheric sciences and the study’s lead author Toby Ault. “As we add greenhouse gases into the atmosphere – and we haven’t put the brakes on stopping this – we are weighting the dice for megadrought conditions.”
Researchers conclude that the risk of a decade-long drought is at least 80 percent, possibly as high as 90 percent in certain areas. The chances of megadroughts lasting longer than 35 years are between 20 percent and 50 percent. And the likelihood of a devastating 50-year drought is between 5 percent and 10 percent.
The study also reveals that most of California is currently experiencing an “exceptional drought,” the most severe drought category. Oregon, Arizona, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas all sit between moderate and exceptional droughts. One somewhat bright note from the study -- chances for drought in parts of Washington, Montana and Idaho may decrease.
Beyond the United States, the report notes, southern Africa, Australia and the Amazon basin are also vulnerable to the possibility of a megadrought.
As Ault mentioned, researchers point to greenhouse gases/global warming as the culprit for the current situation. “With ongoing climate change, this is a glimpse of things to come,” he warns. “It’s a preview of our future.”
“This will be worse than anything seen during the last 2,000 years and would pose unprecedented challenges to water resources in the region,” Ault says, reiterating the dire situation. With the new research data, Ault and his colleagues urge states in the Southwest to enact strategies to mitigate these long drought projections.
The National Science Foundation, National Center for Atmospheric Research, the U.S. Geological Survey and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration funded this study, which is scheduled for publication in the American Meteorological Society’s Journal of Climate.
