With warmer temperatures this year, 50 U.S. cities are faced with higher risk of Zika virus spread, scientists found.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reports that there are 258 travel-associated Zika virus infections in its various states while in U.S. territories, three were travel-associated while 283 are locally-acquired. If the virus continues to spread, however, scientists created a map to show which states will be impacted the most.
In a new study published in the journal PLOS Currents Outbreaks, researchers from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), NASA Marshall Space Flight Center and the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) observed 50 U.S. cities. They wanted to demonstrate which cities have ideal weather conditions that could boom Aedes aegypti mosquito numbers during warmer months.
One key factor that contributed to the Zika virus spread in the Americas is warm temperature. With the right mix of certain conditions including warmer weather, these are favorable for populations of mosquito along the East Coast as far as New York and in the southern parts of the country including Los Angeles and Phoenix.
The researchers created computer models by using data on climate, air travel, mosquito breeding patterns and socioeconomic status to determine which areas would make for a hospitable environment for Zika virus outbreak.
They found that between December and March, the weather condition is not conducive for mosquitoes except in south Texas and south Florida because of their relatively warm conditions. From July to September, however, weather conditions are very suitable for Aedes aegypti mosquitoes.
The computer models show that the highest mosquito abundance would likely to occur in southeast and south Texas. Areas like southern Florida and south Texas are likely to be affected by travel-related virus spread while they offer suitable environments for populations of mosquitoes.
"This research can help us anticipate the timing and location of possible Zika virus outbreaks in certain U.S. cities," said Andrew Monaghan of NCAR. He added that even if there is still more to learn about Zika virus, shedding light on the mosquito patterns and where they can thrive in the country could help establish mosquito control efforts.
The researchers stressed that even if Zika virus would spread in mainland U.S., it would not be like the outbreak that ravaged through the Americas. Most Americans live in air-conditioned rooms which are sealed from the outdoors which lessens the contact between humans and disease-causing mosquitoes.
