Climate change-related food scarcity can lead to 500,000 deaths around the world by 2050, a new study has found. The research was the first to come up with an estimated number of deaths, based on changes in diet composition due to global warming.
The researchers based their estimated 2050 climate change impact on the health of adults in 155 countries around the world if global emissions are not reduced. They also simulated scenarios wherein varying actions are taken.
They found that climate change stabilization can reduce the estimated number of deaths between 29 and 71 percent and this will highly depend on the severity of actions taken. The research was published in the journal The Lancet.
Past researches revealed how global warming can affect food security, but the new study focused on the climate change-related agricultural production changes and its widespread health benefits.
Lead author Dr. Marco Springmann from the University of Oxford said their findings have revealed that the slightest change in per-person food availability could result in alterations in terms of diet compositions and energy content. These changes carry widespread health consequences.
Despite the projected food availability increase, the researchers have found that climate change can slash this growth by roughly a third comes 2050. This could result in a 3 percent reduction (99kcal) in the per-person food availability average.
The model also found that a minor reduction in the consumption of red meat, which could prevent about 30,000 deaths due to its health benefits. However, the researchers discovered that consumption of fruits and vegetables will decline by 4 percent due to global warming.
The projected fruit and vegetable reduction will greatly affect the low- and medium-income nations in the West Pacific and Southeast Asia, and high-income nations around the world.
"Poorest households spend the largest portions of their income on food. As food prices increase overall, of course the poor are going to be most affected," said Oxfam International climate change policy manager, Heather Coleman.
The projected reduction in food availability could save 260,000 people from obesity-related deaths. Unfortunately, the research has found that a total of 266,000 additional deaths will occur due to climate change-related malnourishment.
The findings suggested that climate change adaptation initiatives must rapidly increase to help economies limit the projected health impacts of global warming.
