Fragments of a 1 ton European satellite may crash land on Earth late Sunday or early Monday after running out of fuel, the European Space Agency has warned.
Though the time and location of where exactly the Gravity Field and Steady-State Ocean Circulation Explorer (or GOCE) will land is unclear, the statistical risk to humans is remote, say experts. The satellite is expected to plunge to Earth sometime between 1.30pm EST and 7.00pm EST.
Running out of fuel Oct. 21, the satellite, which is 17.4 feet long, has begun descending from an altitude of slightly under 84 miles by about 0.6 miles per hour, experts said, adding that it will survive contact with the atmosphere but will break up into 25-45 fragments, the largest fragment probably weighing around 200 pounds.
When launched March 2009, the GOCE was always planned for an uncontrolled landing, according to reports. Propulsion came from a system called an ion engine. Unlike thrusters used on most spacecrafts , the engine can fire continuously to offset atmospheric drag. Future satellites are being designed to land on oceans through engines that could control aim if they ever re-enter earth's atmosphere.
The purpose of the GOCE was to measure the Earth's gravitational field with exquisite sensitivity by maintaining an extremely low orbit of about 280 kilometers.
Chances of getting hit by the fragments are tiny but still prevalent. There's roughly a two in three chance that anything from space will hit water, and not land, since 70 percent of Earth's surface is covered in water.
In speaking with The New York Times, European Space Agency's Gravity Field and Steady-State Ocean Circulation Explorer mission manager Rune Floberghagen said the debris will endanger about 15 to 20 square yards of the Earth's surface. "If you compare that to the surface of the planet, it's a very small number," Floberghagen said.
One example of the satellite's risk could come from natural meteorites falling to Earth that normally don't survive on ground impact. More than 21,000 objects the size of a human and larger are currently orbiting the planet and the Defense Department's Space Control and Space Surveillance is monitoring the trajectories of more than 16,000 of them.
