The same natural laws that govern chemical and physical processes – the brightness of stars or the flow of rivers – are also the same forces that drive the evolution of cancer, as revealed by a new study.
By applying a mathematical formula unto tumor biopsies, experts could someday predict how the cancer will eventually grow and develop.
What's intriguing about the technique, scientists said, is that it raises the possibility that doctors could take clinical decisions on how an individual patient's cancer will progress or change. With that, they could decide what treatments should be used.
Tumor Evolution Can Be Predicted
A team of scientists from the Queen Mary University of London and the Institute of Cancer Research, London evaluated data which were generated from more than 900 tumors of 14 different types of cancer.
The study, which is issued in the journal Nature Genetics, aimed to show that many types of the illness evolve in specific patterns that can actually be predicted
Several cancer types such as stomach, bowel and some lung cancers trailed a path set out by a theoretical model that described the buildup and spread of genetic mutations in the course of a single rapid expansion.
The theoretical model was created by the research team. It predicted that in many tumors, all important cancer genes already exist at the start of the tumor growth. New mutations in the tumor are essentially "passengers" that do not have any additional effect to it.
The passenger mutations would gather, and they follow a 1/f power-law distribution. This pattern has been detected in different chemical, biological and physical systems including the course of the Nile River, as well as the luminosity of stars. It even helps govern the financial market.
Meanwhile, the theoretical model was less good at predicting the path of other cancers such as brain cancer and pancreatic tumors. This suggests that natural selection, driven by pressures on resources and space, may play a role in the spread of passenger mutations.
The Future Of Predicting Cancer Growth
The next step in the scientists' study is to determine how the new mathematical mode, which measures the speed of emergence of aggressive or drug-resistant mutations, maps outcomes for patients over time.
"Like in a game of chess, the aim is anticipating the next move of the adversary, to ultimately win the game," said Dr. Andrea Sottoriva, co-leader of the study.
