Someday, the still rumored-only Apple iWatch could adorn wrists worldwide.
Financial analysts are weighing in on the potential sales impact of the iWatch should it come to fruition within this year. Some estimates place first-year sales in the neighborhood of 30 million to 60 million iWatches. That's a lot of time on consumers' hands.
At Morgan Stanley, prognostications are divided among three scenarios -- a base case, a bullish view and a bear market position. The base case takes the pragmatic route, bulls are the wild-eyed optimists, and the bears assume the worst-case scenario.
Analysts, of course, are primarily concerned with the effect of iWatch sales on Apple's stock price. The more optimistic viewpoint relies on the coattail effect of Apple's ecosystem to create a pathway to rapid consumer acceptance of the iWatch, mostly among Apple devotees who want to add the wearable tech device to complement their Apple iPhones, iPads, software and services. Morgan Stanley raised its Apple price target to $110 per share from $99, based partly on including iWatch sales into its Apple estimate for the first time.
According to Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty, Apple's still-rowing brand loyalty and what she refers to as the "halo effect" will drive sales of the iWatch, not a predominate interest in the wearable tech device market as a whole.
Analysts apply the base case using the introduction of the iPhone as a model. Comparatively, then, an iWatch at an estimated $300 retail price point could sell 30 million units in its first year. At $300 per iWatch, Apple revenue figures could see up to a $9 billion uptick.
The bullish outlook could see the iWatch hit the ground running at the same pace as the iPad's debut, generating 60 million unit sales of the iWatch. In that instance, Apple's stock price could see an additional $20-$30 dollar per share boost.
Those pessimistic bears, though, present the worst-case scenario that Apple keeps losing iPhone market share and that the iWatch is met with more indifference than anything else. Either the smart watch market has already been saturated or consumer interest in wearable tech wears out. That reality would take a big bite out of Apple's share price, to well below $100 per.
Not much is known about the planned feature set for the iWatch. It is not even known if that's the name Apple will assign to it. But it is thought that the iWatch will incorporate health and fitness monitoring properties, wireless charging capability, compatibility with a wide range of iOS apps, and security features such as lockout and find your device capabilities.
