Latest research by a historian predicts that the rising social imbalance in the state and increasing political chaos might lead to collapse of the civilization by 2020s.
Predictions Based On History's Scientific Models
Peter Turchin, professor of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology at the University of Connecticut, works in the field of cliodynamics, which comprises of mathematical reproduction and statistical examination of the historical societies. Cliodynamics is a novel "transdisciplinary discipline" that considers history as another form of science.
Turchin's study involves applying its tools to the social and political systems of the United States. He studied a scientific model that he had been working on for the past ten years. The model spots the point at which the political chaos would reach its apex in the United States and Western Europe.
The researcher's study focuses on 40 unrelated social pointers that led to the turn of events in the 1970s. By means of this research, he demonstrated how political disorder and social volatility would reach its height in the 2020s.
Turchin's article was published in the journal Nature.
Social Instability And Political Turmoil Might Cause Civilization To Collapse
"The presidential election which we have experienced, unfortunately, confirms this forecast. We seem to be well on track for the 2020s instability peak. And although the election is over, the deep structural forces that brought us the current political crisis have not gone away," wrote Turchin in his article.
Turchin has noted a critical advancement that is currently driving political chaos, called the "elite overproduction." The growing income is leading to rising inequality in people, with more people becoming rich. These rich people are inclined towards being more politically active. As a result, competition among the elite class is rising, ultimately leading to fragmentation.
Turchin points toward the division of Democratic and Republican parties. For instance, the idea of splitting the Republican Party into groups namely, Tea Party Republicans, Traditional Republicans and Trump Populists. These partitions run so deep that many Republicans voted for Hilary Clinton in the elections while others decline to support Trump.
According to him, elite overproduction is the primary driving force behind increasing social imbalance. The other major factors are fading financial health of the state and deterioration of the living standards.
Presidential Election Confirms The Forecast
As per Turchin, the recent Presidential election experienced in the United States seems to verify the forecast. The civilization is headed towards the instability apex that was predicted to happen in the 2020s. The election may have ended, but the profound structural energy that resulted in the current political catastrophe still exists. The negative trend seems to be on the rise.
Donald Trump getting elected as the President might not help in averting the proposed collapse. Trump's administration might not be able to turn around the negative trend. Moreover, some of the proposed policies would even tend to make things worse. For example, radical reduction on taxes on rich Americans might not be able to improve the financial health of the state.
